Daphne, I look forward to your figures when you have the time.

I also agree 100% with this statement here:

“… the people I know – in a wider circle – tend to be the ‘liberal part’ of the coalition that makes up PN support. The way they vote determines the fate of the PN every time ….
Another group that determines the fate of the PN is young people, especially first-time voters, from the same circle and their very much wider network (because people that age influence each other in a way that adults do not). In the 2008 general election, they practically all voted PN”

But this is where we part company, (until I see your figures at least!) in that I think comparison to voter behaviour in any general election is not wise. Because no-one was determining the fate of the PN / PL here.

[Daphne – OK, now I see that we’re talking at cross-purposes. You have to look at the numbers for 2008 because that is the only way you have a basis of comparison for the vote in this referendum. It emerges quite clearly from these numbers that the 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th (and I think also the 8th) districts had an ‘abnormal’ pattern when compared to the rest of the country (except Gozo, which was abnormal in a different way): it is clear that a dramatically high percentage of electors in those districts who voted PN in the 2008 general elections voted Yes in this referendum. In those districts, they are actual PN voters in the same way that the people in the 2nd district are actual Labour voters, and unlikely to switch to the other party. The message to the PN is clear: its policies and attitude have to change to accomodate these supporters, or risk having them become increasingly disloyal and estranged.]

Maybe we are losing focus of the argument – or perhaps, we are not realising what the argument was/is.

In my case what I am saying is that I think that PN liberals certainly would have voted YES, but that fact alone, without the PL exhorting it’s supporters to also vote YES (as clearly reflected in the 2-5 district results, where there is probably a dearth of liberal PN supporters) the NO would have triumphed, for in these districts – Labour and also “conservative”, widely church-going and maybe with a higher percentage of individuals not fully able to understand the divorce concept, the NO vote would almost certainly have obtained a majority.

[Daphne – You are entirely correct in saying that left to their own devices, Labour supporters especially in those districts would have voted No. I have always said throughout this discussion that Labour could never introduce divorce because its core support is even more conservative in these matters than the PN’s (the working-class tends to be extremely conservative, and the ‘socialist’ movement in Malta actually took advantage of that). For saying this, I was mocked by some people commenting on this site, the sort of ‘pseudo-liberals’ who take things at face value. But the facts of this referendum have borne me out: despite being told repeatedly by their leader and his wife to vote Yes to divorce, thousands of Labour voters especially in Labour strongholds didn’t vote at all. It says a great deal that they were prepared to go against their party leader rather than doing the usual and obeying blindly. They struck a compromise by not voting at all instead of voting No.]

Needless to say, also without Labour’s pressure, the figures would also have been different in ALL districts – however the relevance of its effect is simply more clearly seen in known Labour areas, that is all.

I don’t get this. Take a look at:

http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/divorce-referendum-2011-live-blog (scroll below JPO)

and you will see not only the majorities in districts 2-5 (Labour) but also the number of YES votes are actually the largest – running from 10k to close to 12k, NO OTHER DISTRICT broke through the 10k YES barrier.

Of the others, they are a mixed bunch, but conservative PN areas voted “NO” and “liberal” areas “YES” but not by the number of votes in the Labour areas.

I don’t honestly think that any further analysis can be claimed to be any more than gut feeling.

What I do know is that I know several PN supporters, and I don’t refer to your average idiot, who openly declared they will be voting No, as opposed to your what your feelers told you, so really it is not too meaningful to base any predictions or analyse on the behaviour of any “circle”.

Interests and personal affinities, often dictate the type of people we mingle with and exclude others, but all have an equal vote. And different priorities and outlooks on life.

If you still think I’m wrong re the figures kindly do point out the fault in the logic, as I am not getting this!

[Daphne – It’s got nothing to do with logic or gut feeling, faulty or otherwise. It’s just plain old market analysis, like you would use for sales of Fanta or whatever. But you need the whole picture to do that (EP election figures, 2008 general election figures, and so on). I have some deadlines and then I’ll put up a post about this. As for the gut feeling, it isn’t so much a gut feeling as an educated guess. So far it’s been quite accurate. That’s because the people I know – in a wider circle – tend to be the ‘liberal part’ of the coalition that makes up PN support. The way they vote determines the fate of the PN every time, and that’s why Joseph Muscat is after us. Another group that determines the fate of the PN is young people, especially first-time voters, from the same circle and their very much wider network (because people that age influence each other in a way that adults do not). In the 2008 general election, they practically all voted PN – even those who had Labour parents. They’ll have voted Yes now. I find this all very interesting (and I see that you do too) – but truly, by polling young people and socio-economic group AB ‘liberals’ you can tell which way the wind is going to blow every time. The only exception was with the drive to get rid of VAT in 1996, which ‘warped’ patterns, though even there – with notorious hindsight – I remember many people I knew being suspiciously silent about politics in the run-up to the election, and afterwards saying that they voted Labour.]

So the blind saw the light :)

‘I belong to a very particular sector of the electorate which swings the PN’s fortunes. I can always tell which way things are going just by picking up the sentiment of those in my wider, extended circle of acquaintances”

Daphne, do not underestimate the “birds of a feather…” factor.

Your “wider, extended circle of acquaintances” is almost certainly NOT representative of the general population, in many, many ways.

Comparing trends here with observations relating to general elections is not very fruitful, as voter behaviour is bound to be considerably different due to the nature of the poll.

[Daphne – Yes, birds of a feather is unsafe reasoning. but not with this particular flock. I’ve looked at the numbers and it turns out my assessment was pretty accurate: Labour voters stayed home or voted No, and PN voters from the 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th districts carried the day by voting Yes. I’ve been out most of the day but will be writing about this.]

Divorce is a hard sell, without the PL exhorting it’s unquestioning supporters – the same people who would cheer Mintoff one day then switch with barely a pause for breath to cheering KMB (!) – No would have won overwhelmingly, because of so many factors working against:

It is hard to distinguish between voting for essential divorce legislation, and the whole divorce process (and what led to it) itself, a highly negative experience, certainly not something to desire;

The religious aspect;

The fear factor;

The fact that the PN actually took a public stand against.

The results show larger YES majorities in very predominantly Labour districts, ambiguity or NO in conservative PN districts, the more conservative the stronger the NO (Gozo – and please include as Gozitans those Maltese predominantly PN supporters who have second homes there and hence a Gozo ID card).

The only trend reversal relates to the degree of conservatism of the voters in a locality. Maybe connect conservatism with age, if you wish. In this manner one can see than in somewhat more “enlightened” “modern” areas such as the very broad Sliema / St Julians / Ibragg area, there is a moderate YES majority, if not as strong as in Labour areas.

So, assuming for argument’s sake that a more cosmopolitan, more PN locality will at best give only a moderate YES advantage, then left to their own devices the other localities would certainly have done a Gozo.

To be blunt, I think Stupid saved the day, for all the wrong reasons.

[Daphne – Wrong. The numbers show that PN voters voting Yes swung the thing, and not Labour voters.]

The result is also an eye opener for the Church.

Can you imagine eating “Gbejniet tal-Vatikan”?

Ginger, you qualify as a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

No, there’s the Vatican City State. Actually we should sell off Gozo to the Vatican and have a big party.