Pop a pill. It’s not a general election.
Joseph Muscat needs to take a cold shower.
Lots of people in the Labour Party seem to need an ice-cold shower or a prescription for diazepam. The hysteria over the last few weeks has been right out of control.
Joseph Muscat doesn’t appear to understand that if you build up people’s expectations to the level of frenzy, then you have to meet them. The retention of the status quo – three EP seats for the Labour Party – is not enough to satisfy the hysterical desire for victory or for power, for triumph in general. It’s now reached the stage of blood-lust.
Muscat’s supporters are going to demand something more, but it will be four years before he can deliver what it is they really want. Even the most charismatic leader cannot sustain that level of adrenalin for such a long time.
Muscat has been out on the hustings for the last nine weeks, making victory speeches and talking about new dawns, earthquakes and now even storms. Yet what will change today? Nothing. We had three Labour MEPs yesterday and we will still have three Labour MEPs today. Only their names will be different, and perhaps not even that.
Once Muscat’s people understand this, though it takes a while for excitement to fade and clarity to hit, they will experience the mother of all anticlimaxes. Life will go on. And Muscat will be left with a very serious problem.
That problem is called ‘where do I go from here?’ His first six months as leader were spent welcoming back into the fold the Old Labour elements that Sant had sidelined and corralled. And as we saw yesterday, this means that even the Zejtun thugs now feel the party is theirs and that they are welcome once more.
He has been talking about earthquakes and change and getting nothing done. In the fight for control between ‘CEO’ James Piscopo and secretary-general Jason Micallef, Jason has won and is now variously glued to Muscat’s hip or hanging from his necktie. Everywhere Muscat goes, Jason goes with him.
After today, Muscat is going to need a new project and a fresh distraction to keep his supporters happy. There is no way he can keep them on tenterhooks for a full four years. Keeping busy by restructuring the party is now out of the question.
There is only so much restructuring you can do when your deputies are Anglu Farrugia and Toni Abela, your secretary-general is Jason Micallef, and you’ve shot yourself in the foot by making George Vella shadow minister for EU Affairs, bringing back Alex Sceberras Trigona, and welcoming the Mintoffian elements back to the fold while using language like ‘suldati tal-azzar’ and being rude and dismissive about protocol and good manners.
By behaving as though this is a general election, Joseph Muscat has left himself with nowhere to go. By ranting on about victory and new dawns he has painted himself into a tight little corner with little or no leeway.
The insanity of this behaviour is not quite of the same level as Sant’s announcement, the day the referendum result was announced, that ‘partnership’ had won and that everyone should go out and celebrate. But it’s getting there.
There will be nothing much different today to what occurred in 2004, except that this time round Alternattiva Demokratika will share its 2004 vote with Azzjoni Nazzjonali, a party whose views are diametrically opposed to its own.
Five years ago, the Nationalist Party performed badly in the EP elections, and then four years later it won a general election. So anything that Muscat says about victory has to be taken for what it is: childish nonsense. If he were politically mature, he wouldn’t be setting himself up for a fall.
He has to win the respect of those who have voted against Labour for years, and so far he has succeeded in doing only the opposite. That is why he is now talking of “a coalition that will take Malta by storm” (he appears to have a fondness for dramatic terminology).
That this coalition will be with Alternattiva Demokratika, building in fact the coalition that has so far existed only in sentiment – MLPAD – has long been obvious to those of us who monitor the political scene closely. Because Muscat is so immature, it was also obvious to us that he would be unable to contain his excitement and would reveal his hand too early, dropping clues left, right and centre. And so he has done.
For the past few months, he has been currying favour with AD activists, sympathisers and politicians. This has been easy to do because the unifying factor in AD is hatred for and suspicion of anything or anyone connected or perceived to be connected to the Nationalist Party.
AD columnists invariably have plenty of criticism for the Nationalist Party but never mention the Labour Party. It is as though the Labour Party does not exist.
Labour and AD have since before the last general election operated on the principle that the enemy of my enemy is my friend. With its back up against the wall and 20 years of political activity but with nothing to show for it, AD knows that its only chance of gaining a seat in parliament is by allying itself to Labour: Il-Partit tac-Chips.
Muscat is a professional smooth-talker and is even now smooth-talking his way round the circuit. If you’ve got a grudge or vote AD, he’s going to be at your door. He doesn’t really care what you think, or what your political principles might be.
He just wants your vote to help ensure he becomes prime minister. He doesn’t even know what he’ll do afterwards. He hasn’t got a plan. But it doesn’t matter, because as it was with Alfred Sant, to him this is just a game.
Now that Muscat has given up on his earthquake and Jason is still dangling from his necktie, he’s planning to brew up a storm instead. I hope he has the requisite tea-cup up at the party HQ, and not just mugs with a freebie logo on.
This article is published in The Malta Independent on Sunday today.
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From The Sunday Times Portal
Insiders in the major parties say that the PL is expected to retain its three EP seats to the PN’s two, but the PN may win the extra seat allocated to Malta under the Lisbon Treaty, restoring parity at 3-3, although that is far from being a certainty.
http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20090607/local/busuttil-leading-in-vote-sorting
There’s a flaw in your argument, because if there had to be any hint of a coalition between MLP and AD, then AD will lose its core supporters. I voted AD in the EU elections, but come next general election should there be any whiff of such a coalitin my vote will go to PN. Allahares jitla’ l-labour.
[Daphne – AD has lost its core supporters. The AD vote in the 2004 elections moved to Labour in this election.]
There have been alot of hints of such a coalition especially since the last general election. Both PL and AD are hungry to be in government and there you have your answer. It may be simplistic but true just the same.
The AD core supporters were never ex-Labour, they were ex-PN. That’s clear from the second preferences on the last election.
If you analyse the preliminary data from this 2009 EU election, this is far from reassuring for Labour, if you look at the districts that had low turnouts, and take this into consideration by calculating the likely percentage of voter preference of the non-voters, as well as the likely preferences of the AD/AN vote, Labour has only a 49.1 of the general population vote (assuming a 95% general election turnout), as compared to 50.2% for PN and 0.7% for the small parties. So if there was a general election tomorrow PN would win again. So if I was Joseph Muscat I would be quite worried about where the election is going, I think he is counting his chickens too early, perhaps conned by PN’s false show of modesty.
Cara Daphne … issa hu pacencja .. maggoranza assoluta Laburista .. Mikiel Gonzi kisser lill-Knisja u lil-Malta, u Wenzu Gonzi ser ikisser lill-Partit Nazzjonalista u lill-Malta … u by the way .. l’ispizjar milli ikollu jaghtik !!!!! … u int kompli sejra kif int … ibqa ohrog il-hdura li ghandek go qalbek … forsi xi darba tistrih !!!!!
[Daphne – Lovely.]
Il-hdura hrigtha int John Muscat.
Kemm taf ticcelebra helu John Muscat.
So what, Gonzi is still Prime Minister. Labour still has to win the big one. It will have been a very long wait, around 24 or 25 years if I am not mistaken.
John, ikkalma ta, ghax inkella l-erba’ snin li fadallek tistenna biex tara l-labour fil-gvern tarahom twal wisq. Ghalissa, bi tliet siggijiet kontu u bi tliet siggijiet bqajtu, fl-oppozizzjoni kontu u fl-oppozizzjoni bqajtu, jigifieri dal-ferh kollu ma nafx ghalfejn. Forsi ma tantx kellkom cans tifirhu bis-serjeta dawn l-ahhar 20 sena, hlief ghal xi drabi li hrigtu tifirhu u kellkom tergghu tidhlu lura d-dar tigru. Tlett darbiet jekk qed niftakar sew.
Any updates about the result ?
No it is not a general election, just a massive defeat for GonziPN.
[Daphne – Don’t count your eggs….]
It appears to be a landslide victory for Labour, no doubt most of the thanks go to the PN supporters who decided not to vote. Well done, you have only considered your personal interests once again. However the government is still PN no matter what.
It doesn’t matter if those Nationalists didn’t come out and vote, as long as they didn’t vote for Labour. If the Nationalists play their cards well in the next four years, they may win them back and Labour gets stuck with its usual lot.
[Daphne – Labour isn’t stuck with its usual lot.]
No, it’s already been said that the PN didn’t lose any voters. The result’s due to AD supporters switching to Labour this time.
Thank heavens it’s not a general election… whew… :/
John Muscat jifhem hafna fil-hdura.
Dan it-tip ta’ hdura http://www.alternattiva.org.mt/page.asp?p=5189&l=1 ?
The question mark seems to be on the runner up. Where will the sixth seat go? I am wondering if the runner up is Ms S. Ellul Bonici would she still oppose the Dublin treaty or would she take the first flight to Ireland to convince them to vote yes?
As I write this, the first results are coming from the counting room in Naxxar. Preliminary numbers indicate a 57% preference to labour MEP candidates versus 40% for Nationalist candidates.
The endless post mortems have begun and all kinds of reasons for this result are being expressed fast and furious, the most prevalent being that these results point at giving the government a message like never before.
My interpretation, along with the one above, is that the less informed public, still does not understand that the MEP elections have no effect on who continues to govern. The Nationalists remain in power and Labour still occupies the Opposition benches.
What is worrying even more is that 57% gave the vote to Labour MEP candidates when they were rarely heard from and whose leader campaigned in a less than honest fashion, allegedly tampering with tapes, and debating issues which have nothing to do with Malta’s representation at the EU.
But, one reason which has not been sufficiently touched upon is the fact that the present government has a transparency problem, needs to openly discuss certain projects with the interested parties first before implementation and even more importantly when a project is started, it should be done well, on time and on budget.
These are the points which the opposition pounces on all the time and which are presented to it on a proverbial silver platter.
If today’s result reflects the electorate’s vote in the next general election, it will send the NP to the Opposition benches for a good stretch. Fortunately there is ample time to correct the obvious deficiencies before next election rolls along.
One also has to remember that a full 20% neglected to even bother to vote and one can look at traditional trends which show that the Labour Party has always been able to get the vote out while the Nationalists for one reason or another tend to be much more ambivalent about their voting habits.
Those 20% will make a world of a difference in deciding who governs for five years after 2013. It’s time for the Nationalists to recognize this
From Christian Peregin’s (TOM) Facebook: ‘Tonio Borg confirms that it’s probably gonna be 3-3’.
Tal-Labour qed jiccelebraw. Ghandhom petrol x’jahlu – mela l-gholi tal hajji mhiex tifnihom?
Issa nistieden lil Laburisti li jiehdu il bnadar homor maghhom biex ghada immorru il-Belt jaraw lili Joseph Muscat jiehu il gurament tal-hatra ta’ prim ministru ta’ Malta ghal hames snin li gejjin.
The Nationalists are still government.
Just returned from a packed restaurant in Sliema. Saw at least 30 carcading vehicles and not one EU flag…but that is a detail isn’t it?
I bet if one of them dares to show the EU flag he will end up at Mater Dei.
… and the packed restaurant is a sign that people are not as badly off as Muscat would have us think.
Labour won thanks to those people who decided that their personal interest was much more important than the national interest. Automatically they gave their vote to those who didn’t want us to enter in the EU.
I am watching Net and am really disappointed by the line of argument of Pierre Portelli especially. It is a fact that the PN has to take account of the result but what exactly are we suggesting? Li nilghabu ghal-gallerija or that we govern and do what needs to be done and even take difficult decisions which may appear unpopular in the short term? We all know what happened in 1996. The Labour Party managed to convince people to vote for it but the reality check came later.
Hasn’t their deputy leader told them not to make lots of noise and disturb others? Well, it seems to me that they haven’t heard him . . . or rather, they didn’t give a damn. They are taking the streets, with full-on music – and horns. Can they, for once, just act civilly?
It’s as if they’ve just won the general election. It’s OK to be jubilant, but please, do not disturb others who have to work.
The only reason Labour are appealing for people not to carcade is probably so that they can say they have nothing to do with any incidents which may arise, such as the one of yesterday in Zejtun.
Oh, and I also loved the bit on the One News banners that urged the PL supporters “not to give in to any provocation”.
On a lighter note, the chicken has clucked: ‘min gej il bidnija car cading mieghi?’
[Daphne – They’ll find it tough going. The road is all dug up.]
I have no problem with Labour supporters celebrating in a civilised manner. Hopefully the police will do their duty and control the situation before it degenerates. Just saw on TV a hefty bloke getting out of a car and confronting someone and the police pushing him back in. He then lit a ‘suffarell’ and drove away. It is all deja vu – they have not changed one bit.
Jomar42: concordo su tutto, jien wiehed li ma mortx nivvota ghax ma narax sa mniehri. tajjeb tibghat messagg ta tbezbiza, biex kif ghedt tajjeb int, dawk l-affarijiet li mhux sejrin sew jaghmlu ‘effort’ u jsolvuhom.
Ghax 2013 terrur jergha jkollna.
U nammetti li iz-zewg deputies iqabbduni bard hafna aktar mill-leader
Not an EU flag in sight. Imbasta jkantaw li raw id-dawl u raw il-helsien…. ahjar nidhaq.
Lahqu harquhom nahseb.
I’m unsure why people are so astonished at the MLP’s reaction to the EP election results. Surely no one should expect anything less from a bunch of half-wits, incapable of understanding just how meaningless this vote is, or the irony of the fact that they would be stuck at home watching another episode of Nies Bhalna (instead of blaring their car horns) had they got their way six years ago.
Most people in Europe don’t give two hoots about the EU parliamentary elections – and rightly so, in my opinion. The fact that a significant proportion of PN supporters share this view isn’t worrying, it’s just evidence of good sense. So let us not begrudge these monkeys the pleasure of their Sunday dawra and their flag-waving. After all, bocci and the banter down at the kazin does become quite tiresome after 20 years.