Oh my, a hung parliament
One of the great certainties of European politics is about to end. Everyone else has confusion and coalitions but Britain has the Conservatives in government and Labour in oppositon, or the other way round.
You always knew where you stood.
Now the first exit polls indicate that the Conservatives will be able to form a government only with the Liberal Democrats on board. Labour and the Liberal-Democrats together don’t have the requisite 326 seats to form a government.
Let’s hope we don’t go down the same road. I have a peculiar feeling that with people bored of the Nationalists and with Joseph Muscat failing to impress, then we just might.
What a nightmare – probably a worse nightmare than a Labour government.
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The votes have not been counted yet. The exit poll is based on an assumption that the national swing in the share of the vote for each party is applied to each individual seat.
When elections are this close, one has to wait for the final result. It could be a repetition of 1992.
Are you saying that a hung parliament is a realistic possibility for Malta?
[Daphne – I don’t know about the realistic, but it is certainly a possibility. AD actively promoted the idea in the 2008 general election campaign. Yes, they actually campaigned FOR a hung parliament, the difference being that they called it campaigning for a coalition. The Nationalist Party has a one-seat majority over Labour. If AD had won just one seat by eating away at the Nationalist Party’s voter-base (it never ate away at Labour’s, despite being set up by two of the worst hodor in the Labour Party, Wenzu Mintoff and Toni Abela), Labour and the PN would have had an equal number of seats and AD would have been the kingmaker by choosing which party to ally itself with to form a government. Fortunately, most people prefer certainty and woke up to the inherent danger of having such an unstable situation. As we see now, even a one-party government with a single seat majority has terrible problems getting things done – let alone a coalition government with a single seat majority over the opposition.]
By the way, Germany has been doing reasonably well with hung parliaments (or coalition governments) for the last 60 years or so. Shouldn’t be a problem for the British.
[Daphne – I don’t think you can or should extrapolate from Germany to Britain. Their cultures are diametrically opposed. The curious thing is that it is the Germans who like certainty and order and are not averse to regimentation, but they are the ones who love their coalitions. Then Britain, home of the Individual with a capital I, likes two-party certainty. Sounds like home. I guess the more erratic people are the more certainty they like in their governments. Or maybe the Germans are so disciplined they can make coalitions work. Look at Italy, on the other hand. I certainly wouldn’t be comfortable with a coalition. I’m not even comfortable with a one-party government with a single seat majority.]
The point about coalitions that I was making at the time of our 2008 election was that very large parties are themselves coalitions in the sense that they group people with wildly differing views, and have to balance these views when making policy.
This is clearly true of the PN and of both the Labour and Conservative parties.
@JB
Well, JB, not sure if we can have a hung Parliament in Malta, but according to Astrid Vella and maltastar, we will be having a suspended Parliament on stilts.
If the exit polls are correct (in this close election, doubtful, postal votes not included), I cannot see the Lib Dems sucking up to the Conservatives. Shall be an interesting night.
Hey Daphne–a bigger picture: Dow Jones drops 1000 points in 30 minutes, then goes up 500 points in 15 minutes. We live, as the Chinese say, ‘in interesting times’. Hope you didn’t dispose of all your Lira.
What about the UKIP?
[Daphne – They’re with the rest of the small parties at 29.]
Are the Tories very far away from a majority? Do you see a Tory-UKIP coalition?
[Daphne – Listen, don’t you have a television set? The Tories are at 305 but they need 326. In answer to your second question: I don’t know how many seats the UKIP has in these exit polls, because all the smaller parties are group together at 29. The BNP has some of those. No, I don’t think the Conservatives will form a coalition with the UKIP, even if the UKIP has the seats. It’s true that the party is made up largely of ‘break-away’ Conservatives, but that might be precisely the problem. Also, it’s regarded as a single-issue party – to break away from the European Union. That hardly makes for compromise.]
Ok ok “taggredinix”!
UKIP may have started as a one-issue party but has since evolved into a conservative-libertarian party with a clear national programme. At some point the diversity within the party will converge – but it may go either way.
Does someone know of the margin of error of these exit polls? It could be interesting if the Conservatives can form a coalition with the other parties apart from the liberals.
[Daphne – They can’t. The smaller parties don’t have enough seats. And can you honestly see the Conservatives forming a coalition with the UKIP and the BNP?]
Ok. You pre-empted me.
So can Cameron form a government only by coalition with the Liberal Democrats?
[Daphne – That’s what it looks like at the current showing. The Conservatives and Labour are static at 305 and 255, but the Liberal Democrats have just gone up from 59 to 61. The smaller parties are at 29. There goes my early night.]
There is still a chance of not having a hung parliament given the recent swings. If not, a Tory-Lib coalition will definitely not come easy with all the differences shown in the electoral campaign.
UKIP and the BNP have never won any seats in national elections.
The smaller parties at Westminster are the Scottish and Welsh nationalists, and the Northern Irish parties.
When John Major lost his parliamentary majority after losing several by-elections, he survived a no-confidence motion with the support of the Ulster Unionists.
The eurosceptic wing of the Conservative Party cooperates well with UKIP. But UKIP will not gain any seats – their best chance is Nigel Farage in Buckingham who’s aiming to unseat the slimy Charles Bercow, Speaker of the House.
Who decides what happens next i.e. if exit polls are confirmed? Is it true that the decision rests with Gordon Brown who is still the effective prime minister?
Yes, though how effective?
As far as I am informed, the party with the largest number of seats is the one who will be asked by the Queen to form a Government; then it’s up to that party whether to present a minority government or whether to form a coalition.
[Daphne – Yes. And now they’re saying that Cameron might go for a minority government.]
The PM can stay on to form a government even before Cameron is given the mandate.
The Lib Dems are now appeasing the Tories. Can Cameron afford to play games with the europhile Clegg? Of course he can. It’s all about expediency.
http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20100506/local/debate
very alarming!
and for the Overestimated whatever
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/election2010/liveevent/
you can follow here without watching tv and asking Daphne too many questions
X’imbecillagni. Mghaxxqin fuq British politics meta ninsabu f’dal-hara ta’ pajjiz. Ghalikom loghba. Ghalija mhjihiex.
My god, did I just say that? Yeah well, I meant it. It’s not a fucking game. We need the UK in Europe (yes, mein klein Kev) and we need to decide where we’re going. Go Baldrick!
What does ‘needing the UK in Europe’ have to do with the outcome of this election? Your comment would have made sense only if UKIP stood a chance. Tory eurosceptism is more of a flip-flopping game to appease the millions of British sceptics than anything else. You can go back to bed, Baxxter.
It is close to 6.00am Malta time. Some maths about the UK elections.
423 out of 650 seats determined, of which 211, or 50% to Conservatives.
Leaves about 227 seats to determine.
If they get 50% of the balance – 50% should be achievable since they have got that out of the 423 so far – they will get an additional 113 at least, or a total of 324. Just 2 short of 326 majority.
Let us wait and see.
[Daphne – Turns out that isn’t the case at all. It’s 8.30am, I’m watching the BBC and they’ve just said that “it’s by no means clear who is going to form the next government.”]
You are right. After about the 550th seat, Labour has been gaining seats at a faster pace.
The situation is not clear now.
The Liberals hold the key, they are free to join a coalition with the Tories as well as with Labour. Even if the coalition doesn’t produce the desired 326 to form an absolute majority it would still have a right to govern. A simple principle- the leader with the highest number of support will govern.
One ITV commentator just said that if Nick Clegg joins the Conservatives in a coalition it would split his party. Not quite sure how true this might be.
No Conservative coalition possible with UKIP/BNP, as the latter of course won zero seats.
Worth distinguishing different things:
– a coalition (where two or more parties do a deal to maintain a Parliamentary majority, with MPs from those parties getting roles in government)
– a ‘positive’ Parliamentary pact, where one minority party sets up a government on its own with some sort of formal understanding that other parties will join it to vote FOR certain key laws in return for not bringing the goverment down
– a ‘negative’ Parliamentary pact, where one minority party sets up a government on its own with some sort of informal understanding or maybe a de facto expectation that other parties will not vote against key laws – perhaps because no-one wants or can afford a new election for a while
In each case the issue in practice turns not on how many total seats the parties have, but instead on what operational expected majorities from here and there can be mustered in Parliament going forward.
Many permutations possible with varying degrees of potential stability, involving varying degrees of bluff and nerve.
NB the issue of avoiding new early elections will loom large in the respective leaders’ thinking – expensive, and what might be different/better/worse if it happens?
More if your readers are interested:
http://charlescrawford.biz/blog/a-well-hung-parliament
Check your facts before spouting stupidities… the British do not PREFER two-party pseudo democracy, it is the first past the post system which leads to it… now it will be changed.
[Daphne – My, my, temper, temper. Apparently not, James, or haven’t you heard? The first past the post system has resulted in a hung parliament and…..a coalition.]
Once in a while a coalition will happen even with 1st past the post. It is not the disaster you make it out to be. Had it been a proportional system Labour + Lib Dem would have more than 51% of the seats giving a very stable coalition.
1st past the post just does not reflect the people’s preferences, not by a long shot. How can you get 23% of the vote and 10% of the seats or less? Simply unacceptable….and undemocratic.
With 1% of the UK vote, the Greens win a seat, while UKIP, with 3.1% get no seats. That’s proportionality in UK elections. The Greens contested less constituencies than UKIP, of course, but then again, that reflects the party’s strength nationwide.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/election2010/results
The truth is that the election of MEP Caroline Lucas – the first Green MP in the Commons – is more a reflection of her tenacity than the fading Greens going anywhere.
So now we have it. Golden Brown has decided to stay on for the good of the country. And while Clegg undermined him in publicly seeking to play the game with an ever eager Cameron, Brown has appreciated this move and asked them to take their time. Meanwhile, if no agreement is reached between Cameron and Clegg, the latter is always welcome to go to uncle Gordon to form a coaltion government. Brown does not intend to allow Cameron take the limelight with a minority government.
Scottish National Party leader Alex Salmond, which held six seats, said he had already been invited to talks with Brown.
“Fate seems to have dealt us a mighty hand between ourselves and Plaid Cymru,” Salmond told the BBC.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7691715/General-Election-2010-Gordon-Brown-appeals-to-Nick-Clegg-to-strike-deal.html
Scottish National Party leader Alex Salmond, which held six seats, said he had already been invited to talks with Brown.
“Fate seems to have dealt us a mighty hand between ourselves and Plaid Cymru,” Salmond told the BBC.
Scottish National Party leader Alex Salmond, which held six seats, said he had already been invited to talks with Brown.
“Fate seems to have dealt us a mighty hand between ourselves and Plaid Cymru,” Salmond told the BBC.
Here’s the link:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100507/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_britain_election
The third party (Lib Dem) very nearly has the same percentage of votes as the second party (Labour). Yet it has 200 less seats. Democracy? My foot.
So (if I understood what you wrote) in your opinion, a PN+AD coalition would be worse than a PL government ….. could you pls elaborate the specific reasons why?