Mubarak – will he survive?
Published:
January 29, 2011 at 11:17pm
Mubarak’s wife and sons are said to have fled to London. What’s happening is amazing. I get the feeling that 2011 for North Africa is going to be like what 1989 was for Europe. Maybe it’s premature to say that. I don’t know. But definitely, something has snapped.
Gaddafi must be as nervous as hell, sandwiched between Egypt and Tunisia and in a far more precarious position than Mubarak and Ben Ali.
Let’s see what comes next.
One thing’s for sure: that market trader who set himself alight and died started one hell of a revolution, and he didn’t live to find out, though nobody can say now that he died in vain.
51 Comments Comment
Leave a Comment
Amen!
You must be the only Maltese journalist who’s taking any interest in the story.
Revolutions in the Muslim world have a habit of giving us the unexpected. Egypt already did it in 1952. And Iran did it in 1979. Whatever the result, it will be nasty for the West, and it’s a good thing we’ve all but extinguished our fervour for that whole “war on terror” nonsense, or it could be worse.
Let us wait and see. We’re damned if we do, and damned if we don’t, but if we don’t, at least we can’t be accused of meddling in someone else’s business.
And it won’t be like 1989 in Europe. This will sound like the epitome of political incorrectness. Firstly, Soviet bloc nations could refer back to their own history pre-1945, only 40 years back, to revive democratic systems, in some cases a couple of centuries old. What history or tradition of democratic institutions do North African countries have?
Secondly, 1989 was not about a poor disaffected demographic cohort revolting against the oligarchs. 2011 is. This much-vaunted “wave” of revolutions (only a couple so far) is about replacing a dictatorial regime, grown fat and corrupt, with another more or less dictatorial regime, pro-Islamist, which has yet to consolidate its corruption credentials.
Just look at Egypt. El Baradei, who is as corrupt as they come, is already trying to jostle for power, when he is reviled on Egypt’s streets for sucking up to his Iranian buddies (by those who know him. Most Egyptians have never heard of him.)
But kudos to you for talking about this. It’s more than we’ll ever get by any of The Times’s “opinionists”. Or indeed by Jacques Zammit, too busy shuttling between Lanzarote and Brussels.
“Whatever the result, it will be nasty for the West”
If history is anything to go by, it’ll be nasty for the Arabs, too. The Iranians threw out the Shah, only to get the Ayotallah.
Yes, but they don’t seem to mind. That was my point. They replace one despot with another ostensibly benevolent despot, but a despot all the same.
The Maltese have a rather similar attitude to democracy, viz. that it is the process by which the people choose one strongman over another.
While I usually agree with your analysis and your opinions on various subjects, I think that this time you are completely wrong about ElBaradei. You will find several articles showing that he is the most eligible candidate for the post of interim leader. One should not confuse American propaganda with the truth. It is not in the interest of the US to have democracy Egypt, especially with an outspoken person like ElBaradei at the helm.
This Nobel peace laureate was elected Director General of the Geneva based IAEA for three consecutive terms with the full support of countries like Germany, France and Austria at the United Nations. He has also received several decorations for service, merit and peace from Austria, Germany and Italy respectively as well as several honorary degrees from universities in Ireland and the US. So how in your opinion is he corrupt and a sucker to the Iranians. Maybe because GW Bush said so?
Can’t say I am very excited about these happenings in North Africa. Rather worried in fact, as the vacuum which will be left after these dictators are ousted, is most likely to be filled with some fundamentalist Muslim party – and these don’t make for good neighbours.
Let us hope they do not end up like Iran. May universal human rights be respected and secularism of state too.
It might be that – at least regarding Egypt – Gaddafi is not so concerned.
QUOTATION:
Several areas of [Egypt] border on anarchy as Muslim extremists set up roadblock[s] and vied for control in different regions.
The prospect of a downfall of the Mubarak regime at the hands of a “peoples’ revolution” has sent shivers through Israel, the United States and Saudi Arabia, all of whom fear the Muslim Brotherhood will emerge as a dominant force in Egypt.
Iranian opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi encouraged the anti-Mubarak movement, stating on his website on Saturday, “Our nation respects and salutes the huge revolution by the brave Tunisian people and the rightful uprising of the Egyptian and Yemeni people,”
Iranian Muslim clerics also have taken a stand against Mubarak. “An Islamic Middle East is taking shape,” Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami said in a Friday sermon. “A new Middle East is emerging based on Islam … based on religious democracy.”
The semi-official Fars News Agency reported that the Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Salami said, “This is what comes of hegemonic systems dependant on foreign [states] that start a dictatorial movement n their country. He stated that the protest movement in Egypt is a “manifestation of the [Iran’s] Islamic Revolution in the Middle East region and the world of Islam.”END OF QUOTATION
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/142014
It seems to me that the only country where women can still be seen protesting is Tunisia (these days there was one demonstration of women for a *secular’ democracy). If my observation is correct, this indicates something.
Maybe in Egypt they are already fearing that things there could turn out as they did in Iran about 30 years ago. A 1979, rather than a 1989.
I think I’ve heard the Maltese foreign minister saying that we cannot prescribe others our type of democracy. As this is the ideology of most of the Western European elites and of the White House at the time, more Jihad should be expected.
Partly, it has already started. Not only in the form of roadblocks. When some of the protesters for “democratic change” broke into the Egyptian national museum, they destroyed a few mummies from the pre-Islamic period.
The “pre-Islamic” Coptic Christians might also feel less comfortable than Gaddafi at the time.
Women are protesting in Egypt too.
Thank you for the information. Do you know a bit more? Are most of them wearing headscarves like in some solidarity demonstrations in the US (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4tWwY02dj8&feature=player_embedded#)? Or could they also be taken for Maltese women, like here: http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash1/hs888.ash1/179623_1522022262469_1591974419_31093772_7634394_n.jpg?
Quoting an Israeli news source on Middle East issues? That’s very impartial…
Yes it is, indeed. Here are three more impartial news sources for you, Mr. Borg:
http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2011/01/the-pragmatic-fantasy.php
http://www.debka.com/article/20608/
http://www.youtube.com/user/LatmaTV#p/c/8B99644BD8FE4070/21/STOaCl-cES0 (my favourite one).
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/palestine-papers-documents/browse
This story seems to have the Israelis in a panic, together with the Wikileaks threat of publishing US cables on Israel.
Several areas of [Egypt] border on anarchy as Muslim extremists set up roadblock[s] and vied for control in different regions.
There was panic in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina and the police made it worse with their aggressive tactics whilst the government both state and federal proved totally incompetent.
In this case the situation is made worst by Mubarak removing the police from their posts and using agents provocateurs to make the situation worst and escalate the protest into a military confrontation.
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/01/prominent-former-egyptian-mp-and.html
I hope you’re right! I hope that 2011 for North Africa will be like what 1989 was for Europe and not what 1979 was for Iran. I’m genuinely apprehensive about the whole situation. I’m not liking it one single bit. I mean what will happen if we have some two Iranian-styled Islamic states on our door step?
And, Daphne, can we have more of these foreign affairs posts rather than always on the village politics that goes on in our pitiful little wonderland? I mean for example what do you think about the EU bill that is being discussed in Westminster at the moment?
[Daphne – I couldn’t be bothered, and neither can most of my readers.]
The outcome of the fall of these Middle Eastern dictators may result in the emergence of extreme Islamic rule. If this happens, Malta can see the arrival of great batches of immigrants on our shores.
It is not really the Middle East, but North Africa. There was trouble in Algeria too, apart from Egypt and Tunisia. The Middle East is roughly from Egypt eastwards.
You’re forgetting Yemen and Jordan, to say nothing of Lebanon teetering on the brink and the consequent unravelling of Israel’s stability if – when – Mubarak goes.
Let’s hope the uprising goes well and does not pave the way for the fundamentalists. I also have a gut feeling that this is for real and that the people are craving for democracy as we understand it.
They have to remain on their guard, as I get the impression that the movement lacks direction and is running on adrenalin. Here’s hoping that all falls into place.
Gut feeling? Of course it’s for real. What’s the alternative to craving democracy? Craving a dictatorship is a contradiction in terms.
I don’t know if it is true or not but a Tunisian friend told me Gheddafi introduced some popular measures like better social services to Libyan citizens two years ago. He has also proved less of a puppet to the USA than Ben Ali and Mubarak. The situation is critical for him as well, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he survives this turmoil.
Gaddafi thinks of himself as a revolutionary. That’s why his ‘kowc tal-bidla’ (a VW beetle) takes pride of place in the museum in Tripoli.
Gaddafi might survive because his people were not open to education as much as the Egyptians and Tunisians.
He is mortal. The system cannot survive forever with the same people in place.
Seems like a fundamental issue in these protests and revolutions is the pressure put on the middle and lower classes by the government in reducing subsidies and letting “market forces do their thing” as libertarians are wont to say…
The IMF’s and World Bank’s harsh economic policies have broken many 3rd world countries in the last couple of decades…
What is happening in the North African region was preannounced. Let’s not have qualms about it. Political history is intrinsically entwined with religion, so I am expecting ripples even as far as the Far East.
I am convinced that there is an indirect link with the Palestine question: the 80 year old problem has all the characteristics of a cancer cell, the more clinically suppressed the more wild it becomes.
This has borrowed deep in the Arab sub-consciousness. Arabs perceive these last 200 years or so as a deliberate, calculated humiliation by the West…The west ‘lost’ Iran because of its unequivocal support to the Shah’s regime, the disproportionate war of attrition in Afghanistan, the ‘illegal’ war in what was known as the Iraqi Nation, the nonchalant reaction to the last war in Gaza. What and how much more is the west is going to lose.
Cicero said: history is the tutor of life.
Edgar Morin in his book ‘Culture et barbarie europeennes’ sums it up: “The tragedies we experienced in 20th century have to stimulate us to reflect. It has nothing to do with repentance, but endorsing the fact that yes, much harm has been done… A broader acceptance is paramount however: it must embrace Jews, Blacks, Gypsies, homosexuals, Armenians, colonizers of North Africa, Madagascar”
And might I add the infamous suppression of native North American people and the rest. I have faith and great hope in Europe. The game is now and should be in European hands. America is feeling the historical syndrome of financial empires…fatigue…the borders of its empire are too stretched to support.
What do you mean by “the Palestine question: the 80 year old problem,” sir?
A problem that started in 1929 with the “‘ethnic cleansing’ attack upon [mostly non-Zionist, religious] pious Jews by Arab Muslims in Israel / Palestine”?
“Agitated by the Mufti, Haj Amin al-Husseini’s intentional inflammatory speeches who called the believers to rise up in defense of Islam’s holy places. The brutality -which included beheading of babies by sword, castrating old Rabbis, body mutilation, castrating rabbis with their students before they were slain, breasts and fingers sliced off, eyes plucked from their sockets- was accompanied with cries of ‘Itbach al Yahud’ (kill the Jews) and ‘Allah akbar.’ [269]”) (Source: Wikipedia)
If that, in addition to something else that happened 200 years ago, is a cancer that “has borrowed deep in the Arab sub-consciousness,” then surely you know so much more than anybody about the burning socio-psycho-medical-historical-financial issues of our times that you should not waste your precious time here, and write speeches for Romano Prodi instead. Otherwise, how would we ever be able to get “the game” back “in European hands”?
I don’t care much about Mubarak – he had his pot of gold for a long time.
The most important question now is: Egypt will it survive and flourish? I hope the US is actually changing the way it deals with the Middle East into a more healthy policy. The west has been trashing these countries for a century. What a disgrace!
Looking forward to seeing a stable, prosperous and democratic Maghreb that competes economically with the EU. These are great times to live through.
I am riveted by what is unfolding in Egypt. Like some here, I do hope that the Muslim Brotherhood or similar fundamentalist groups do not seize the moment to grasp power.
I hope that El Baradei and other like-minded moderates step in. I am sorry to say that the USA is frozen with inertia. Biden is on record saying that Mubarak should not be ousted. This before Obama himself went to the media.
Nobel Peace Prize to Obama, anyone?
This is a very interesting link on how ‘geeks’ (I am using the word fondly) are helping Egyptians to go online.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/29/anonymous-internet-egypt_n_815889.html
El Baradei has balls of steel. He’s the guy that stood up to the Bush and Bliar.
I’m astounded by the comments here. Most of the problems in the Maghreb and the middle east can be laid squarely at the feet of the old colonial powers: England, France and the US.
Oh come on. For how long are people like you going to blame England, France and the US (interestingly, you did not mention the Soviet Union) for the failings of the countries of Africa and the ME?
Europe went through the world’s two most deadly conflicts and came out as a beacon of human rights and economic development. Eastern European countries formerly under the shadow and guns of the Soviet Union made an amazing change in the short space of a few years since 1989.
And you blame England, France and the US for the woes of the African and Arab countries?
You are still thinking in the timeframe of the 1950s and conveniently forget the rich natural resources that the African continent is endowed with. You also conveniently forget, or purposefully fail to mention, that African and Arab countries have been ruled by their own brethren for decades and have been helped and showered with European and American aid for decades.
Still convinced that ‘most of the problems in the Maghreb and the Middle East can be laid squarely at the feet of the old colonial powers’?
Oh yes, the old blame game. You forgot Turkey, the “old colonial power” for close to 500 years. Or perhaps the bad guys in history can only be WASPs+Frenchmen.
You can always read a bit of history on the attitude of the old colonial powers towards the break-up of the Ottoman Empire.
Istanbul was a cosmopolitan city of great merchants. Ismir was effectively under the control of European merchants basically selling the produce from the hinterland at great profit (ie those actually producing were getting short changed). And here’s the clincher: the Ottoman Empire even forfeited most taxes.
Another John, here’s a small sample of what really happens in resource rich Africa:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/17/world/africa/17nigeria.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-11902489
You should also look for links on blood diamonds, why the Congo has been at war for so long, and so on. But it’s easy to blame their lack of civility and innate barbarism.
Baxxter, the French came here with their enlightenment principles and despoiled our country of its silver and gold whilst defacing the knights’ legacy. I’m astounded! Is it a case of two weights and two measures or are you displaying a hint of bigotry? We had two world wars and the continent was ravaged by conflict for the last 1000 years! Are you kidding me?
No one mentioned ‘lack of civility and innate barbarism’, except you, of course. And you did not acknowledge the fact, and its implications, that the leaders in each African country is a national of that country.
But you can keep blaming the Western imperialists. And as regards the Ottoman Empire, there are volumes to right about its civility and the way it treated its subjects with enlighthened humanity. Everyone knows it.
Another john. you implied it very clearly so I pulled it out in the open. Nowadays we don’t say negroes, but it’s acceptable to hate because of religion though and most of the time it’s a thin veil of racism and bigotry.
I urge you to read the Palestine newspapers. How the Palestinians were ready to concede territory and security for peace yet they got snubbed by the Israelis because their agenda is simply to get the whole of Erez Israel end expel the other religions from its borders.
When a powerful nation fails at an agreement with weaker third world nations, it usually means they didn’t make them bend over far enough or they needed the charade for PR purposes.
For one, the Ottoman Empire treated minorities, including jews, much better than the empires on its western borders…
OK. I am converted. Won’t argue any more. Where is the next stoning, or next jihad please?
It’s a problem of extreme poverty. I bet you that most of the civil liberty problems in third world countries will improve immensely once their governments start working and the citizens’ economic situation improves.
The US puts kids in prison for carrying a minimal amount of drugs, at great expense to the state coffers. Year on year the US government spends more detaining a kid than on his/her education.
This wave of revolutions cannot be compared with the pro-democracy revolutions in Europe in the early nineties. These Arab regimes will be replaced by Muslim fundamentalists – just look at Iraq, Bosnia and Lebanon.In Egypt the Muslim brotherhood will fill the vacuum.
El Baradei is no good news at all. He is the principal reason that Iran managed to build up their nuclear reactor under his so called watchdog. He blocked every single American step to stop the Iranians from building / developing their nuclear capabilities. No wonder the Saudis are not keen of what is happening in Egypt. They are losing influence in a number of Middle East countries. Saudi Arabia’s loss is Iran’s gain.
El-Baradei (and Obama) are living proof that the Nobel prize is a joke. El-Baradei was rewarded for blocking the Americans, while Obama was rewarded for being a weak (non hawkish) president. Even Yasser Arafat was awarded the Nobel price for goodness sake.
Mr Shaw, you seem to have a soft spot for the innate civility and supremacy of the white European… May I point you to the Palestine papers currently on display at The Guardian and Al Jazeera to see the extent of corruption and double speak engaged by your favourite actors to keep whole peoples down under dictatorial yokels.
Al Jazeera? You could have referred to a news source slightly more credible than the mouth piece of Al Qaeda and anti Americanism.
Yes, Al Jazeera. Seems funny but Fox news in the US is taking a nose dive and Al Jazeera is gaining ground. I bet Israel is going to find WMDs in Qatar soon…
Al Jazeera is a very reputable news channel that compares to the BBC in terms of quality. Certainly better than CNN, ABC, NBC, which spend their prime time hours chasing stars and their peccadillos.
Case in point: CNN had more coverage of Charlie Sheen’s antics than it does of Egypt. Their reputation got a hit when they reported Bush’s lies verbatim, hosted Pentagon officials as independent talking heads and other overt empire propaganda…
This is DISGUSTING! Even by Joseph Muscat’s low standards!
http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20110130/local/n-african-unrest-malta-should-unleash-tourism-campaign-muscat
This is what I said earlier about Biden’s views on Mubarak
http://www.nowpublic.com/world/joe-biden-says-egypt-president-hosni-mubarak-should-not-step-down-2752055.html
Is Cairo a repeat of Teheran in 1979? The USA seem intent on always backing the wrong horse which is well past its expiry date: the Shah in 1979 Iran, Mubarak in 2011 Egupt; they think that by throwing big money and billions of greenbacks in arms at a problem you will solve it.
I have always got this gut feeling that the US does not have a feeling for history eg Afghanistan: supporting the Mujaheddin when the USSR invaded in 1979; when Gorbachev came to power one of the first decisions taken was to get the hell out of Afghistan due to the unsustainable number of casualties and the impossibilty of controlling the cities let alone all the remote provinces. The Mujaheddin, armed by the US, then mutated into the Taliban regime which procreated Al Qajeda and 9/11.
Riots in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen, Lebanon falling into Hezbollah hands, demonstrations in support of the Egyptian riots in Jordan. It’s not North Africa only but the whole Arab world is in a state of flux. Will we see another oil embargo a la 1973, that will throw the West’s weak economic recovery out of kilter? We live in interesting but worrying times.
A dictionary definition of hubris, my friend.
To be fair, after WWII the US has taken the mantle of trying to save the world from itself. Witness their over inflated ‘defense’ budget. The problem is that we are well past military interventions to fix structural issues to world progress.
Seems like the secretary of state and the president are taking a more enlightened view to world issues. Hope the Pentagon’s long term view on tackling world peace changes to the same tune… the neocons got soundly discredited with the bush and his minions
What is surely common between the nineties and now is that both people living in these countries want democracy and freedom, as much as we do.
Davidg, yes, we DO want democracy and freedom. The thing is, we have had them for the last two decades or so. Had you not noticed?
The usual cycle. A dictator gets toppled by another dictator who shall in turn be toppled by another dictator.
Where’s the novelty? This repetition of coups and dictatorships has been an African hallmark for as long as I can remember.
The only positives in the situation is that Tunisia and Egypt have a substantially homogenous ethnic population, so this latest pogrom won’t spill over into yet another ethnic / tribal machete-hacking blood-bath.
As for Ghaddafi, he’s as safe as houses.
The big question is will the “Moslem Brotherhood” be any better?
The serious of revolts that have taken place in a domino fashion in more Islamic countries is amazing and draws one to compare with similar historical events which have changed the course of history.
One cannot compare with the 1989 events in Europe however, because many if not all of the European countries involved trace their origins to European civilisation. The shocking change in the political system was desired by the people of the defaulting communist states who positively embraced the new political ideology as they shared the same European culture.
I think that politics in Islamic countries has completely different connotations and their socio and religious culture is a huge hindrance and impediment for democracy.
On the Egyptian front, Mubarak’s recent appointment of a right hand man as vice president shows he may be preparing an exit route, so his resignation is probable. Not sure whether ElBaradei will get his chance so easily even though he has the support of the US.
Most probably new faces will come to the fore in Egypt soon, but the political culture of the Egyptian people will still favour a totalitarian regime. To be honest with you I am not expecting any spectacular changes in politics.
The rebellion in Egypt could well end up in a civil war similar to the one of Algeria of the eighties and early nineties. Then President Bendjedid did not survive the uprisal and the aftermath was a chain of failed military backed successors until Bouteflika was ‘elected’ .
On a local note, I fear that all this instability in neighbouring countries may adversely effect Malta’s security. The sooner things return to normality the better.
Nostradamus?