Boots on the ground would finish the job in days, but there you go…
This ‘no boots on the ground’ business is going to be a tough one. With Gaddafi dug in for the long haul in his Tripoli fortress, it’s now clearly impossible for a loose band of untrained and undisciplined volunteers, with a motley collection of outdated weapons, to overcome a trained militia with real arms and armaments.
Bravery and determination are no substitute for years of military training.
The rebels can’t do it without help beyond air strikes, unless some Gaddafi insider pulls a Julius Caesar on him. All talk about exile or suicide is rubbish. It doesn’t take a psychiatrist to read that kind of personality. Gaddafi is not the sort of person who would pop a cyanide pill in his bunker as the enemy closes in.
Nor is he the sort of person who would pack his bags, hop onto his private plane and flee. He has the sort of personality which means that he is now in his element, with a big fight on his hands and plenty of the precise sort of challenges he so loves.
For all Gaddafi’s protestations to the contrary, the last few years, in which he hasn’t been able to pick fights with the United States, to fund terrorism or build up nuclear weaponry to wipe out the west, must have been numbingly boring for him. He found himself reduced to the very distractions of a bored lady of leisure: tinkering about with plastic surgery and designing his own clothes.
He tried to pick a quarrel with Europe about immigration and even tried a spot of blackmail, but there weren’t many adrenalin rushes to be had there.
It’s now obvious that Gaddafi has changed his strategy. Instead of overextending himself all the way from Tripoli to Benghazi and exposing his forces to attack from above, he’s using the ages-old tactic of drawing his enemy as close as possible to his stronghold, there to set upon them with a full-scale ambush in their weakened state.
Reading excitable reports over the last few days about the rebel forces drawing closer to Sirte, and how if they conquer Sirte then there will be nothing between them and Tripoli, I thought: What? Gaddafi is drawing them closer to finish them off. They pose no threat to Tripoli in the way that Gaddafi’s men posed a threat to Benghazi. But Tripoli poses a real threat to them.
That’s why there’s all this talk now about forcing Gaddafi out, among international leaders, because the alternative looks like it’s going to be a fight to the death (of the rebels) or a dangerous stalemate in which they retreat to their stronghold in Benghazi while Gaddafi stays in his stronghold in Tripoli, and both emerge for occasional skirmishes on contested territory.
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Well, do the rebels want boots on the ground? They did not take kindly to the British diplomat and his SAS bodyguards who turned up to have a little chat. Ideally a neighbouring North African country such as Egypt should intervene and help them.
As regards picking fights, I’m sure that would be fights against people who he thinks cannot fight back and win.
When the no-fly zone was set up, the Arabs got defensive and hostile, right after they critized the USA for doing nothing. Excuse the stereotyping, but you never know where you are with these Arabs.
I don’t think Egypt is in a position to attack anyone at the moment, but Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Lebanon and Iran definitely are. I think they don’t attack, because they want the West to spend the money to do so and to have bitching rights, with their people, to incite hatred against the West.
The solution is an invasion, the West has to invade the Tripolitania region, find Gadaffi and give him to the NTC, who will do the right thing and lynch him immedietely.
Afterwards Libya should be split into 2 countries and the West should be given favourable long term deals on oil and gas, as a payment to leave Tripolitania in the hands of the NTC (Fezzan and Cyrenaica).
The coalition’s discussions about giving Gaddafi a way out is an overture to putting troops on the ground.
It’s like America’s hesitation to accept a no-fly zone, and then, no sooner that it was approved by the UN, it took the leading role.
Gaddafi’s forces shelled Misurata Hospital and today the medical facility is abandoned after the coalition forces failed to stop the regime tanks bombarding the city.
Misurata has no water and electricity and civilians are under fire from government snipers.
I think its time our country do something drastic to help the wounded in Libya. We are the closest country to Misurata and we are just sitting on the fence without doing our bit to help these civilians.
We have Karin Grech Hospital and theatres which we can temporarily use without jeopardizing the workload in Mater Dei Hospital. We also have St Phillip’s hospital having the latest medical equipment, a hospital which was closed due to fierce competition in private practice.
We have hundreds of nurses who resigned for a better profession, like myself, and are willing to help. The factors influencing the decisions of nurses to resign is merely for a better pay and conditions and not job satisfaction. I am confident that many medical staff will volunteer for such a good cause.
We should find it in ourselves to finance help for these people who are suffering and dying.
Maybe next time Mahmudi Baghdadi calls Castille, we should ask permission to use some of Gaddafi’s money, which was frozen under UN sanctions, to help finance this medical crisis.
Ok Leonard, what are you suggesting? How will this work?
That’s already being done – Gonzi has offered Malta’s medical services to this effect in yesterday’s London meeting. As for Gaddafi’s money – that’s not a bad idea.
Jeez, Kevvy! We agree! Phenomenal!
I have already suggested in a comment to this blog that we should offer medical aid to the victims of Gaddafi. Let us hope that this is taken up so that Malta, at last, shows that it has a humanitarian streak which has been lacking in our politicians’ utterances.
Offer medical aid to the victims of Gaddafi? Are these people out of their mind, or what?
How about helping the rest of the civilised world to minimise the number of victims instead?
“Boots on the ground” would have solved the situation a long time ago with the real saving of thosand lives of Libyan civilian and military personnel.
But that would not satisfy the “political correctness” of high and mighty politicians and it would not fit in with the hardly perceptible slide of the USA towards its traditional isolationism. In the meantime the toll of avoidable civilian and military casualties keeps on climbing steadily.
‘Political correctness’ had nothing to do with the coalition not sending ground troops to help the rebels.
It was the rebels themselves who, from day one, warned that they did not want any foreign troops on Libyan soil, and which may have influenced the Security Council to restrict the use of ground forces.
The pity is, that if it is proven that without ground troops the whole mission may be in jeopardy, then any foreign power sending troops to help the rebels would be taking action outside the UNSC mandate and will be severely criticized by the very same people who advocate ground troops intervention!
Very precise and correct analysis! The rebels lack command and control structures, they have no strategy, no planning an no coordination.
Arming them with heavier or more modern weapons will not resolve any of this. The more time passes the more this is looking like a failed revolution. I am beginning to doubt whether the rebels do really do have as wide a support as they claim, particularly in the western part of Libya.
Theirs is clearly not as popular a movement such as we saw in Egypt and Tunisia.
Gaddafi does have strong support in Tripoli and Sirte and the armed forces support him in full. Otherwise they would not be fighting so fiercely as they are. Bottom line, it looks increasingly like Libya will end up as a failed state in perpetual civil war. The slightly preferable alternative option would be partition along the lines of N & S Korea.
The alternative option is not preferable to Western security including ours. Gaddafi has already declared his intention to terrorise the region and beyond.
Unfortunately, it is probable that the West will wait for an atrocity to happen (9/11 style) before any decisive action is taken.
Any solution which leaves Gaddafi and his sons alive is not a good one.
Locking them up in a jail would be a distant second best choice.
As long as they are alive they will not give up trying to reconquer Libya and failing that to just wreak vengeful havoc on anyone they get the opportunity to.
Gaddafi means what he says. He said that there will be an exodus and there we have it.
Aha…so, first a no-fly zone, then airstrikes, now the French are talking of arming the rebels. What a mess! There were reports yesterday of banners among the rebels reading “Sarkozy, where are you?”
Well of course, they would ask that wouldn’t they? Because they have been given the impression that France is at war on their behalf. And now? What does France do? Arming the rebels goes against the UN Resolution 1973. So does the deployment of ground troops. Not that that matters. Thing is, France has to now finish the job it got itself into.
But who is this Sarkozy anyway? This is the same man who, last year, collectively deported Gypsies back to Romania, prompting am angry EU Commissioner Vivian Reding to say that she thought such scenes had last been seen in the Second World War.
Oh, and has anybody noticed that Ms Sarkozy has vanished from her husband’s side? Before, anywhere Mr Sarkozy goes, she would be there, not any more. Interesting.
[Daphne – Wives do not go to summits and to meetings like that in London.]
And your opinion of Gaddafi is….what, exactly?
He deported law-breakers. The fact that they were Gypsies is irrelevant.
A vision of Joey “il-Leader” and wife attending that summit just flashed in front of my eyes.
Don’t forget the twins to finish off the pretty picture.
I agree the option that the coalition has chosen is the most difficult.
Attacking the enemy with surgical precision to minimise collateral damage to the civilian population is very hard and takes time.
This is even more so when the enemy has no qualms about using human shields as will surely be the case in Tripoli.
Tripoli, lying as it does bang on the North African coast, is a relatively easy target though.
UAVs (drones) and the the plethora of differrent types of Hawks produced by Sikorsky can do the job after meticulous planning.
This is what is being done at the Pentagon now.
All the politicians meeting and talking here, there and everywhere are just gaining time for the military planners to finalise their task.
There is an even more frightening potential result with a prolonged stalemate – disillusionment at the lack of success with the pro-democracy movement provides fertile breeding ground for Al-Qaeda and co. who have resources of their own, and who are just as bad, possibly worse than Gaddafi.
The west must do all in their power to help the rebels to prevent that happening, but it’s still no easy decision.
Who is fighting against Gaddafi? Who are these rebels? How many are they? The Americans are not sure who they are. The Europeans have doubts.
I think the Benghazi uprising was over-optimistic. They thought that the armed forces would defect to their side and mistakenly said that the do not “need” help. How wrong they were.
http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20110330/local/no-meeting-with-libyan-rebel-council
Tonio Borg had a chance to hold a fringe meeting with the Benghazi-based Libyan Interim Transitional National Council but he decided otherwise. Are we still rooting for Gaddafi’s regime and keeping our fingers crossed that he will come out tops ?
Arming the rebels alone will not help much either.
The rebels seem barely capable of using ordinary weapons let alone sophisticated ones. They are only protestors transformed into ad hoc and inexperienced armed militants.
They have no armed combat training and no form of team coordination and discipline.
What with the light armour on Toyota pickups fighting against the heavily armoured Gaddafi tanks….extremely courageous, but perhaps foolhardy and bordering on the suicidal.
It is easy to forsee a more effective conclusion through ground military intervention. But it is the aftermath and the potential resistance of the population of Tripoli loyal to Gaddafi that might ensue that is worrying. One should be discussing the exit route for the coalition should things go wrong.
Much of Gaddafi’s army has in fact defected and Gaddafi is relying on mercenaries with Toyota pickups almost as much as the rebels are.
What the rebels and the defected military personnel lack is the organizational structure and the infrastructure to support the military equipment that they have managed to seize.
What might work would be to have a relatively small number of foreign ‘advisors’ guiding them and providing communications and to some extent logistics. Has been done before and seems to work, at least sometimes.
Christopher Hitchens’s view:
http://www.slate.com/id/2289587/pagenum/all/#add-comment
And CNN:
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/29/libya.diplomats/
Report in The Times 30th March:
“Although Malta is not serving as a military base to enforce the UN resolution against the Libyan regime, it is providing its harbour as a safe haven for ships on the way back home from their mission in North Africa.”
Iss, ara hemm, hej!
Tassew ghandna biex niftahru ghall-appogg li Malta qed taghti lil-Libjani li qed jissiltu u jinqatlu ghal-liberta u d-drittijiet taghhom, u lil-membri tal-forzi tal-koalizzjoni li ta’ kulljum qed ipoggu hajjithom fil-periklu biex jghinu listess Libjani jilhqu dak il-ghan.
Jekk m’ahniex biss kapaci naghtu appogg morali lil-Libjani billi b’mod car u pubblikament nikkundanaw lil-Gaddafi u r-regim tieghu, ghallanqas ghandhu jkollna id-decenza lil noqodghu siekta dwar l-attaparsi appogg li Malta qed taghti.
Qatt ma bsart li 24 sena wara l-oxxenitajiet tas-sebghajnijiet u t-tmenijiet ser nerga nisthi nghid li jiena Malti.
Think harder Etienne, this is not rocket science.
Can we for once do our bit and help other people and not waiting for other countries to do the job?
People are dying. This is not like accommodating sub-Saharan refugees who are seeking better life. I am against not stopping sub-Saharan refugees halfway from our coast. However it is our duty to help the injured in Libya.
Finish the job in days?
At the start of WW1 British troops were told that they would be home for Christmas, need I say more?
[Daphne – Things were different then, weren’t they.]
The coalition needs to constantly keep hitting the armour columns and rocket launchers plus a healthy dose of Cruise missiles on Gaddafi compounds, ammunition and fuel dumps and they will break; if the coalition lets off now it will be a disaster. As I have siaid before, the only good Gaddafi is a dead Gaddafi.
Boots on the ground was the plan since Day 1. Don’t tell me you believed all that baloney about Obama and Gates being reluctant!
But I’m here to lend you the other side. So here it is, our friend Nigel Farage on the Alex Jones Show (all mainstream and no ‘conspiracy theories’ for as we all know conspiracies never happen except among school pranksters.)
Part 1 of 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96pb3XHANcw
Part 2 of 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vU7lI3ndK7Q
You’ve quoted Nigel Farage, what, five times, so far? What makes him such a reliable source?
I’m genuinely interested.
You seem to be sincerely concerned about the collateral damage of military intervention. What are your thoughts and feelings about the collateral damage of doing nothing?
Hmmm, time for another declaration of interest.
Yes, and we’re still waiting.
Noted.
Kev, (I like Kevvy better, seems so cuddly, but want to be serious).
Please read this quote and then tell me who wrote it: “The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed an idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.”
Ok, guess you give up. Re-read Leo Tolstoy,1897.
Could have been a buddy yours, if he could have suffered your banalities.
The song did say “I’ll be home for Christmas” but the hopeful songwriter was neither a compos mentis politician nor a military person.
This time I agree completely with you. As I had stated already, the only realistic solution to the conflict is either a military one which requires troops in Libya or a political or diplomatic solution which may lead to a divided Libya.
The current situation is practically already a stalemate which may turn to Gaddafi’s favour.