A victory for the government in this referendum will mean a landslide win for Labour in 2013
The backlash to a victory for the government/No campaign in this referendum will mean a landslide victory for Muscat in the general election
This is part of my newspaper column in The Malta Independent on Sunday, yesterday.
Those Nationalist Party supporters are most unwise who say that they will not vote Yes, even though they are for divorce legislation, because they don’t want to help give Joseph Muscat the satisfaction of victory.
If they imagine that they will help further the Nationalist Party’s interests by voting No or by not voting at all, then they do not understand what they are dealing with here.
This referendum is a pressure valve for the mounting anger and frustration against the government. If the government, which backs the No vote, loses this referendum, much of that anger and frustration will be assuaged and dissipated.
People who usually vote Nationalist but who want to voice their burgeoning annoyance and disillusionment will not feel the need to let rip in the general election if they can put the prime minister and his cabinet in their proper place in this referendum.
But if the government wins this referendum, then it’s a different story and things will get really dangerous for the prime minister. Anger and resentment will rise to the point where an explosion cannot be avoided.
I suspect that not even the Nationalist Party itself fully grasps the magnitude of what it is up against, or has understood that a victory for the No vote in this referendum will hammer the last nail into its 2013 electoral coffin.
A victorious No campaign will translate into a horrendous backlash, in the general election, against the Nationalist Party. Those who think a No victory will be perceived as the validation of the prime minister’s stance and of the Nationalist Party’s position are misguided in the extreme.
They do not have a proper handle on public opinion – or more specifically, on the thinking and behaviour of those electors who are the Nationalist Party’s kingmakers at practically every general election.
The reasons why are too complex to go into here, but briefly put, this is because the referendum is no longer about divorce but about the separation of church and state and the need to live free of overbearing religiosity, bossy interference and misplaced prudishness. Many Maltese adults actually wish to be treated like children, but those who render the Nationalist Party victorious at general election after general election don’t.
Divorce is now no more than the symbol of a much wider and more pressing need to escape the clutches of a tal-muzew-ridden society and its controlling village elders.
Over the last few months, there has been an escalation of worrying incidents and encroachments on our freedoms, driven either by tub-thumping Catholicism of the sort that is equivalent to Islamic shariah thinking, or by sheer mealy-mouthed prudishness. These have brought many people to breaking-point.
They will be voting Yes in the divorce referendum not because they are particularly interested in divorce, but because they see it as a way of telling the growing army of vociferous chest-beaters and Mormon-like bossy-boots to mind their own business and keep their religious beliefs to themselves instead of foisting them on everyone else. And this even if they happen to share those religious beliefs.
The people who feel this way, and there are legions of them, are not going to sigh and say “Oh well” when the No vote wins the day. They will become angrier still. Their disillusionment and entirely justified irritation will continue to grow (more so if it is further fuelled by ministerial pronouncements on the Madonna’s emotional state and similar) until the next opportunity they get to tell the chest-beaters and ‘hold back the tide’ preachers exactly where and how to get out of their faces.
That will be in the general election of 2013.
And because thousands of people who have had it up to here with interfering, controlling and bossy village elders are the very ones who voted for the Nationalist Party in previous general elections, the Nationalist Party is in even greater trouble than it thinks.
It had better begin praying – a stratagem entirely in keeping with its recent pronouncements and behaviour – for a Yes victory.
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“They will be voting Yes in the divorce referendum not because they are particularly interested in divorce, but because they see it as a way of telling the growing army of vociferous chest-beaters and Mormon-like bossy-boots to get out of their faces, mind their own business and keep their religious beliefs to themselves instead of foisting them on everyone else. ”
So, so correct!
You have been predicting for ages, even before the whole yes divorce/no divorce hullabaloo started, that the PN stood no chance of winning the 2013 election, given the paper thin 2008 vote majority, trying the “new” PL syndrome (before the return of the dinosaurs perhaps ), PN-weary electorate. So what’s new?
[Daphne – What’s new is this: the prospect of a landslide victory for Muscat as compared to the scrape-through he faced so far. If you think a landslide means nothing, think harder.]
If the No vote wins, will the PL/MLP will put divorce on its 2013 electoral manifesto hoping for a landslide vistory and also dumping its anti-divorce MPs?
[Daphne – It cannot put divorce into its electoral manifesto, because it has committed itself to a free vote. To include divorce in its electoral manifesto, it would have to undo that commitment. Pledges in the party manifesto are subject to the party whip when it comes to the parliamentary vote, the understanding being that if you stand for election with Party X then you are committed to every aspect of Party X’s manifesto and cannot then change your mind.]
If the Yes vote prevails, what about the PN dissidents in parliament who will vote for divorce? I know this is not a money bill, but will Lawrence Gonzi survive ? Will we have an October 2011 election?
[Daphne – I doubt it. I think the government will limp all the way to 2013. This is because Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando, too, has painted himself into a corner by agreeing to and fully participating in a referendum. If you do that, then you have to respect the result. He has criticised Beppe Fenech Adami and others for saying that they will vote against divorce legislation in parliament if they result is Yes. So he cannot do the same thing himself and fight against a No result. I imagine he doesn’t play chess.]
The Bishop of Gozo has succintly outlined the Church’s thinking on those who want to vote Yes for divorce and still actively participate in the Church’s functions and sacraments; you cannot have it both ways, a la carte, have your cake and eat it or call it what you will. It’s up to the individual to decide and vote as his conscience dictates.
And now Pullicino Orlando has said that if the No vote wins, he will take up UK residence and get his divorce. He could have done this in the first place and saved the taxpayer Euro 3 million and a lot of aggravation.
Well, even Alfred Sant won by quite a hefty vote margin in 1996 and look what happened to him in 1998.
[Daphne – Why Alfred Sant? The biggest landslide victory that I remember was Fenech Adami’s in 1992. And look what happened in 1996.]
Well, it seems voters are becoming more fickle with each passing election. If Lawrence Gonzi can limp on till 2013, who knows what will happen in the the intervening two years. To use that hackneyed sentence, a week is a long time in politics and elsewhere (vide Dominique Strauss Kahn), more so two years.
They will almost certainly limp it till 2013. I think Gonzi’s position and that of his closer aides will become untenable however. This divorce issue has been blown out of proportion, especially by the PN. I cannot see Gonzi successfully leading the party if the Yes wins.
“It cannot put divorce into its electoral manifesto, because it has committed itself to a free vote. To include divorce in its electoral manifesto, it would have to undo that commitment.”
Undoing that commitment isn’t really a big deal though. There will be protests from people such as yourself, others in the media and perhaps some clerical criticism, but Joe Public probably won’t raise an eyebrow.
The question is whether they would include divorce in their manifesto knowing the public voted No. People would probably feel they should follow the referendum, but the free vote means virtually nothing to the man on the street.
If I may add to your logically sound evalaution, I believe that the YES vote will on the other hand generate intensive headaches for Muscat.
Muscat indeed did say that it is ‘difficult if not impossible’ for the referendum the pass. Rather than personal conviction, I think it’s his true wish because he knows it will give him the landslide victory.
Most of those people who are in need of divorce and normally vote PN will next election vote PL if divorce does not go through the referendum. A PL win will be their last chance of getting a divorce in their lifetime.
And those who don’t need divorce and normally vote PN but are of a more liberal mindset will not vote. We are faced with a party who will screw the economy on one hand and one that screws with our personal freedoms on the other.
I don’t need divorce and usually vote PN, but this whole thing has made me angry enough even to seriously consider voting Labour if the NO side wins.
I am very sorry, but the PN is no longer living up to my expectations of it and seems to be as intent on curbing our personal freedoms as Labour was on curbing other freedoms prior to 1987.
We did not go through all we had to in the 70s and 80s to eventually end up with this sort of despotic government in 2011.
They even want to control who gets to ask them questions, perhaps because they’re incapable of answering.
http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20110516/local/Objection-to-choice-of-journalists.365549
Here’s a fervent Catholic who divorced. Ahem.
http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20110516/world/Custody-case-may-lose-Gibson-rants.365589
Once again I must re-iterate: thank God for Daphne.
You have caught the exact mood, and if I had one single criticism it is that you were not hard enough on the Nationalist Party. The Prime Minister should stop, take note and listen to the thoughts of all those who have sustained the PN and stood by him through thick and thin, as you have so ably remonstrated.
Yours is a clinical critique that bites to the quick and from where I stand it is absolutely spot-on.
The Hon. Prime Minister will kiss the 2013 election goodbye if he does not find a way to defuse and reign in this religious fundamentalism which he and his acolytes have let loose upon us. He must make it abundantly clear that state and church are absolutely two separate entities, and if any members of his crew are having Madonna sightings or conscience pangs then they will be given the order of the boot and let’s get on with the state’s heavy burden.
Failing this, my vote will stay put until Dr. Busuttil is elected chief player after the elections.
Hear hear
A very well and accurately thought out piece. Completely agree with you. Prosit!
I have never voted Labour in my life. I have always voted for the PN, but I am horrified at the way the PN has handled all this, and at the Church which – instead of teaching the faithful with calm and dignity – has resorted to nothing short of hysterical scare-tactics aimed specifically at the section of the population which swallows everything thrown at it by the clergy – hook, line and sinker.
I will not hesitate to refrain from voting – or even to vote for Labour – if NO wins this referendum, and I am finding that most people in my circle are thinking the same way.
Most people will vote not according to what Lawrence Gonzi or Joseph Muscat think . They will vote according to what they think is right for themselves and for society.
Therefore, a No vote is not a victory for PN. It is a victory for those who think that Maltese society is better off without divorce legislation.
Likewise a Yes vote is not a victory for Joseph Muscat.
[Daphne – A No vote is definitely a victory for the PN, because the PN’s official position on divorce is just that: No. But you’re right in that a victory for the Yes vote is not a victory for Labour, because Labour does not have an official position on divorce.]
So absolutely right, every word. I swear, I will find it extremely hard to vote for anyone who says – in effect – he couldn’t give a toss what the people want but will do what he wants, regardless. Austin Gatt and Beppe Fenech Adami come to mind. And as for Tonio Fenech, with his direct line to the Madonna, well, you just have to lie down and weep.
Does a flattering photo of Joseph Muscat exist? I can’t bear seeing his face in any photo.
Daphne, qed iggib id-dinja fit-tarf ghalxejn … jew qed tipprova taghmel minn kollox biex tqawwi l-qalb maqtugha ghallahhar ta’ dawk li bhalek se jivvotaw IVA.
Int qed tbassar bhali u qed tbassar sewwa u ma tridx tkun xi Nostradamus biex tifhem x’se jigri: ir-referendum mhux se jghaddi ghax il-Maltin ghadhom jemmnu fil-qawwa tat-talb u fil-Kelma t’Alla, u l-Maltin ihossu li n-Nazzjonalisti ghamluh zmienhom wara 25 sena fil-gvern ghalkemm jien lil PN se nerga’ naghtih ghax naqbel ma’ Fr Peter Seeracino Inglott (Bondiplus, 16/05/2011) li ”l-parit Laburista huwa partit bla karattru”.
If that would be the case in 2013…so be it. Principles are principles.
I am one of those Nationalists you have in mind. And I completely agree with you as this is exactly my thinking.
Should the No vote triumph, the Nationalist Party won’t have my vote come 2013. I may even do what was unthinkable up to a few weeks ago, and vote Labour. The Nationalist Party has become absolutely disgusting.
“They do not have a proper handle on public opinion”
X’inhi l-opinjoni pubblika? Dak li tghid it-Times? Nahseb l-opinjoni pubblika – jekk tezisti – hi dak li jitnizzel fuq il-karti tal-vot.
When all the dust settles, I think, by far and large, people will vote with their pockets and not with their hearts. Period.
I CANT SEE WHAT IS WRONG WITH DIVOURCE WHEN WE ALLOWED SEPERATIONS WITHOUT ANY BIG DEAL. PEOPLE WHO WANT TO LEAVE THEIR WIFE OR HUSBAND ALIKE CAN ALWAYS DO SO AND CHILDREN HAVE THE SAME SUFFERING.
WELL THIS IS NOTHING BUT TRYING TO SET ASIDE MORE IMPORTANT ISSUES LIKE AIR MALTA , ENEMALTA AND ALL THATS GOING DOWN THE DRAIN. THANKS TO WHO?
Sur Carmel Scicluna il-Partit Nazzjonalista veru ghandu karattru – prosit nghidlu ghax lanqas kuxjenza ma baqalu ta’dawn it-taxxi kollha li ghamel + zidiet fid DAWL U ILMA GAS PETROL U DIESEL HOBZ HALIB DAWN FTIT AFFARIJIET LI INT U JIEN NUZAW KULJUM LI MA TOQODX MINGHAJRHOM IMBGHAD JASAL IL-BUDGET U JIGI ITIK MIZERJA TA 1.16 U GONZI U IL-MINISTRI HADU 500 EURO FIL GIMGHA ZIEDA DAN GHANDU KARATTRU GHEJDLU LIL PETER SERRACINO INGLOTT…..
There is no such thing as a victory for the government in this referendum. It might WIN the referendum (in terms of the NO side winning) but that is no VICTORY.
Whether the referendum goes NO or YES, this can only be a loss for the government and a loss for the Catholic Church. Both have handled this issue extremely badly.