Austin Gatt used the wrong verb
Picture by George Scintilla
Austin Gatt is getting a bit of a bollocking from the usual suspects on timesofmalta.com’s comments board, for saying that the Nationalist Party will win all general elections for the next 20 years.
Amid the hahahas, he he hes, !!!!!!!, ??????, ……., ‘you have given me a mental depression and made me a prisoner in my home town!!!!!!so give us Fgura residents back our bus routes!!!!’, there is not a shred of sense or even the tiniest attempt at proper discussion.
My own view is that Austin Gatt is wrong.
But with a simple switch to the auxiliary, he would have been right.
The Nationalist Party SHOULD win every general election for the next 20 years, because the competition is not fit for purpose and there is no indication that this might change any time soon.
Twenty years isn’t that long a time unless you’re under 30. It seems like only the day before yesterday that the 1992 general election campaign was fought amid the launch of Radio 101 and Radio Super One, with Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici warning us that the Nationalists will take us into Europe where all the women have rabbit hutches instead of nice big homes to look after, Sicilian hairdressers will invade us, and we’ll all get AIDS.
The Nationalist Party SHOULD win those general elections, but the likelihood is that it won’t, because that is not how people reason, “let’s see which one is the best”.
You only have to examine the survey on voting preferences, carried in Malta Today yesterday (more about this later, when I have a bit of time) to see this. Only around 34% of Labour voters think that the Labour Party has the best foreign and fiscal policy -and some of them even think that the Nationalist Party is better, but still they vote for it.
And though I am regularly insulted for saying that people who can think (with exceptions who hate the Nationalist Party/feel loyalty to Labour for irrational reasons) invariably come round to voting Nationalist, while support for Labour is the preserve of the unthinking and the only partially educated, that survey too bears me out.
Support for Labour is highest among those who left school at 15/16 and among those who only have primary-school level education.
When people begin going into training or higher education, they start voting Nationalist. Because the Labour Party, and even some of those outside it, refuses to see the correlation – still less discuss it – between ignorance and a preference for the Labour Party over the last 40 years, there is no chance of improvement.
Those who, like me, point out this screamingly obvious correlation are accused of prejudice and snobbery, which have nothing to do with the price of eggs, when facts are facts and polls and surveys speak clearly.
This was evident in the last general election, when it could be observed – though not by Jason Micallef, who was too busy working on his outfits – that MATSEC students who come from traditional Labour backgrounds were torn between loyalty to their family’s wishes that they should vote Labour, and their own desire, based on an assessment of the situation, to vote PN.
In the end, we all know what they did – though again, not Jason Micallef, who had to have it explained to him by Joe Saliba on prime-time television.
Austin Gatt was not only wrong in his choice of verb, but he was ill advised to say what he did because it stole the headline – as we have come to expect with The Times – away from the real news, which is that Microsoft will set up in Malta a research centre on cloud computing.
He then spoke about cloud computing and the huge investment successive Nationalist governments have made in technology and in opening up young people’s horizons, something Labour never did and, going on the available evidence, doesn’t plan to do. Labour even tried – its worst crime, in the eyes of many – to prevent young people from becoming EU citizens, with all those doors that opens up.
But then Labour’s own supporters were among the first to grab at those opportunities, including the current party leader who rushed to Brussels.
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“Austin Gatt was not only wrong in his choice of verb, but he was ill advised to say what he did because it stole the headline – as we have come to expect with The Times – away from the real news, that Microsoft will set up in Malta a research centre on cloud computing.”
This really sums it up, particularly about The Times.
This morning I tried the Arriva service from St. Paul’s Bay to Imriehel. It took me 46 minutes when the same journey three years ago took me over an hour. Buses were clean and on time +/- 3 minutes.
I also got a ‘Bongu Sinjur’ from the first driver. The other two greeted me with a nod.
But I will still lodge a complaint as I did expect warm croissants and freshly brewed coffee.
Yeah, and where are the Arriva ground hostesses with the complementary drink and pillows?
YES! And since you’re using the bus and not driving, I’d expect a cocktail bar on every vehicle as well …
What? No cocktail bar? Which bus were you on?
Even the old buses had personal bars (in the driver’s cabin) – he took a swig or two when he so desired.
Being a friend of the driver also had fringe benefits, like not proceeding until you sat down first, and being spoken to in the same gutter language as the driver’s while he picked his ears and flicked the wax out of his window.
For more relaxed driving, smoking under a ‘No Smoking’ sign added to the pleasure and the rattles and shakes accompanied the loud music coming from the driver’s boom box.
Ah, those were days my friend, how I wished they never end…but for Austin.
I miss watching the driver apes physically throwing tourists off the bus for complaining about him smoking foul cigars.
Which is the bus route with the cocktail bar? And I’ve heard there’s a jacuzzi on some of the bendy buses.
You’re all damn right! I was so worked up because of the missing croissant that I failed to see the other issues.
“Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici warning us that the Nationalists will take us into Europe where all the women have rabbit hutches instead of nice big homes to look after, Sicilian hairdressers will invade us, and we’ll all get AIDS.”
Or the Nationalists, who told us that a “yes” for divorce would usher in gay marriage, abortion and euthanasia.
Pot, kettle…
[Daphne – Cite chapter and verse of where Lawrence Gonzi said that. Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici was leader of the Opposition, not a random MP. Nor the comparison appropriate, because one set of claims was crazy and the other is legitimate.]
Invariably Labour supporters shy out of challenges like ‘cite chapter and verse’.
Gullible to the very end.
He really put his foot in it.
Who bloody cares…. pajjiz ta’ wara l-muntanji.
Ah, the dangers of using Maltese when the thought is too complex! He probably said “ghandu jirbah”. Translation options: should/must/will.
Some hack chose the last option.
If Austin Gatt said that, he was really short-sighted and, frankly, arrogant.
I like the man, I think he has guts and he normally rushes in where others fear to tread, a trait I admire in him.Having said that, however, he must learn not to sound arrogant because, whilst fully agreeing with what you said, that the PN should win the next 4 elections (which isn’t much, anyway), he should never have said “the PN WILL win the elections”.
It was wrong and it could be another nail in the PN’s huge coffin.
I have also read with interest the results of the MT survey. For me only one percentage says it all: that which shows that people with a tertiary education see Gonzi as a better leader. It fuels what I have always believed: that you CANNOT be a thinker and vote Labour.
You simply cannot.
Having said that, I’m already having arguments with people who declare they’re voting Labour come next election because “we need a change”, to which I retort: a change to what exactly?
To dinosaurs, to people who resent the Libyan uprising but who have to show a brave face, to Anglu Farrugia, AST, Jose’ Herrera?
To which comes the reply: well, we cannot keep on going like this.
Like this how, exactly, I retort (again)? Practically full employment, home ownership, a good health care, and all the trappings of modern life without the downside being experienced elsewhere, your annual holiday abroad and your two-car household (where the household is made of two adults and one minor)?
Why, you think JM will lower utility bills? And if he does, don’t you think you’ll pay for them tenfold through some silly tax like CET was back in 1996-1998? Then I get a mute face – a blank stare and no words.
But that blank face says it all, and, sadly, to me it says that we’ll see the dinosaurs back in office and the only few people who do not have a peanut for a brain in opposition, only because we needed a change.
Let them have their change – the only pitiful aspect of it all is that we have to suffer the change as anybody else.
You hit the nail on the head.
Spot on .
Perfectly expressed. That is how I feel things are too, unfortunately.
you made me cry
Grow Up will you if you really think what you have written here I am sorry but you are the one with a peanut brain.
But at least it was worth reading I had a good laugh !!!!
And we say we are a catholic nation and hate prejudice…so all the PL people are Dinosaurs and Stupid (non Thinkers) man look around you then you are surrounded by stupid dinosaurs everyhwere.
And if you Really think that we are living in some garden of eden and that the PN is the God Allmighty of Politics and no one can come even close to doing a better job then they are doing then you are as arrogant and short sighted as you have called Dr Gatt and frankly in need of some serous therapy !!!!
Oh but we don’t. None of the 6% swing-voters (or ‘swingers’ if you’re adventurous) believes we’re in the Garden of Eden. We reckon MLP is shyte and PN is shyte but it got us into the EU and more or less kept us there. So we vote for the lesser evil. That’s democracy.
Even if Austin Gatt used the wrong verb and the Nationalists SHOULD win the elections for the next 20 years, such statements and attitude is in my opinion arrogant and out-of-line.
[Daphne – I agree that it is most unwise.]
“IDENTIFICATION ”
Joseph Muscat walks into the Bank to cash a cheque.
As he approaches the cashier, he says “Good morning you, could you please cash this cheque for me?”
Cashier: “It would be my pleasure sir. Could you please show me your ID”?
Joe : “I did not bring my ID with me. I am Joseph Muscat, leader of the Labour Party
Cashier: “Yes sir, I know who you are, but with all the regulations, monitoring, of the banks because of impostors and forgers, etc I must insist on seeing ID.”
Joe: “Just ask anyone here at the bank who I am and they will tell you. Everybody knows who I am.”
Cashier: “I am sorry Sir but these are the bank rules and I must follow them.”
Joe: “I am urging you please to cash this cheque.”
Cashier: “Look Sir this is what we can do: One day Tiger Woods came into the bank without ID. To prove he was Tiger Woods he pulled out his putting iron and made a beautiful shot across the bank into a cup. With that shot we knew him to be Tiger Woods and cashed his cheque. Another time, Andre Agassi came in without ID. He pulled out his tennis racquet and made a fabulous shot whereas the tennis ball landed in my cup. With that spectacular shot we cashed his cheque.
So, Sir, what can you do to prove that it is you, and only you, the leader of the opposition?”
Joe stood there thinking, and thinking and finally says: “Honestly, there is nothing that comes to my mind. I can’t think of a single qualification I’m good at”
Cashier: “Will that be large or small bills, Sir?”
I can’t stop laughing. It is so….true.
Prosit COD!
I was going to say that the joke would come out better with just “Nothing comes to mind” instead of “Honestly, bla bla bla, good at.” But then, your version does say the same thing in so many more words, which may be a better fit in this case.
Let’s not get too excited about this Microsoft deal. Like the Smart City deal there is a lot to consider. (Incidentally what is the state of play with that project, four years on?)
Let us start off from the first premise. Microsoft is no longer the only kid on the block, nor is it any longer the first.
Cloud computing was first thought of by Google when it provided what seemed like unlimited space for your email on Gmail.
It then started pushing google documents as a way to encourag peopel onto the cloud. Today Amazon, ITunes and others are doing the same for music. So why do we persist in hitching our wagon to one star? Why has there not been any deals with any of the other major players?
What advice has Austin Gatt taken from the IT department at the university (which incidentally includes some of the best brains in AI in Europe)?
The deal with Microsoft speaks of a €3 million investment split between Microsoft and Government (how much from each was not made clear). For that deal, Microsoft is offering a discount on its software to government entities (12% in annual licensing costs for government, 27% in annual licensing costs for the 28,000 users of software in schools. The operative word here is annual).
What this basically means is that having given through the front door, Microsoft taketh back through the back one. AND ensures that there is much less piracy, AND keeps the competition at bay.
Whilst other institutions such as the UK government are actively looking at Open Source and investing in young IT people to come up with their own unique products which could become the next big thing, we are pushing our IT people to think only in terms of the needs of Microsoft.
Jean-Philippe Courtois and Austin have been buddy-buddy since 2002.
Why do i have a sneaking suspicion as to who is getting the better deal?
Which reminds me, the headline in The Times , two weeks ago, was “Microsoft International president to visit Malta on Friday” and there I was thinking it was only heads of state that visit countries. What should I bet that the headline came from a Ministry press release?
“What advice has Austin Gatt taken from the IT department at the university (which incidentally includes some of the best brains in AI in Europe)?”
Are you serious?
Yes, I am. Just check where the good ex-students (as opposed to the less-ambitious ones who are happy to be Microsoft-certified) end up.
Oh dear. So the best students in Malta are the best students in Europe, right?
“Let us start off from the first premise. Microsoft is no longer the only kid on the block, nor is it any longer the first.
Cloud computing was first thought of by Google when it provided what seemed like unlimited space for your email on Gmail.”
Uhm, no. Not even close.
Cloud computing was used before anyone even used the term cloud computing and Google was not first, nor were they referring to their initial services as cloud computing.
If you were to pin-point one player really pushing the cloud computing concept – in its present form – I think Amazon would be most prudent.
Amazon, having enormous amount of off-peak time in their massive data centres realised that by distributing that processing time between clients, they could maximise the usage of their servers. That was, I would think, one of the first successful large-scale deployment for cloud computing.
Perhaps we shouldn’t forget projects such as SETI@Home and Folding@Home as well.
As to Microsoft being chosen in this regards it feels quite natural. Mita does not have the internal know-how to set up an Open Source Cloud based data center and no other player but Microsoft would have the vested interest in helping them doing so.
“What advice has Austin Gatt taken from the IT department at the university (which incidentally includes some of the best brains in AI in Europe)?”
With all due respect, I normally have a lot of respect for academia, but the level of the Malta university’s IT education has become a joke.
Very few decent papers are being published, not to mention the fact that the majority of graduates don’t know how to write proper code, nor solve problems beyond that found in their dated text books.
They just don’t understand the difference between learning how to solve a problem and learning how to solve problems.
“What this basically means is that having given through the front door, Microsoft taketh back through the back one. AND ensures that there is much less piracy, AND keeps the competition at bay.”
I partially agree here, but it’s also a question of interest. All this talk about Open Source is all fine and dandy, but the policies on a governmental level is already in place and virtually the player who could make a change here is the university.
Nothing is stopping them from letting Open Source play a larger role in their curriculum and without that there won’t be enough Open Source knowledge to warrant a switch.
More than anything this is a cultural thing. The current IT educated populace consists of a far too high proportion of students whose parents have decided that knowing computers is the way to make big bucks and with a gentle push their sons (and some very few daughters) then dedicate the next four years studying something with very little passion and effort and with very little to offer.
The result is a massive struggle to find competent developers on the island.
The last one we recruited we had tried to find for months and ended up hiring another Swede (I’m Swedish), just moved here from Dublin.
The Maltese we had met weren’t even close. The most qualified of the lot actually relayed demands from his father, and his answer to whether it would be a problem for him working under a woman was too absurd to repeat (and, regardless, discretion would stop me doing so).
Patrik, I disagree with some of your comments. Here’s why:
(1) Chris is right about Google being somewhat the first provider of cloud computing services, if you accept that one of the principles of Cloud Computing is virtually unlimited resources. To some extent, you’re also right about Amazon, but only if you are talking about IaaS, which is just one of the several layers of Cloud Computing.
(2) No, it does not feel natural having Microsoft build an open-source, cloud-based data centre for the government. Microsoft is NOT into Open Source. On the contrary, it’s rabidly against Open Source. Have you ever heard when Microsoft’s CEO Steve Ballmer drew a similarity between GNU/Linux (a free, open source operating system with a copyleft licence) and cancer? That should give you an idea of where Microsoft stands as regards Open Source. Microsoft has also a poor track-record with regard to Open Standards (though it’s showing some signs of improvement), which is arguably even more important than Open Source. The closing comment on Microsoft is that, unfortunately, it’s only interest here is to lock us into its proprietary products.
(3) Regarding our IT education system, in contrast to the opinion you expressed, I think the curriculum adopted by our university is very relevant and of high quality, especially when compared to other offerings by private institutions. Our university teaches students the foundations of IT, e.g., data structures, algorithms, programming paradigms, Computer Engineering, Discrete Mathematics, Compiler Theory, Operating Systems, AI, to name a few. These are much more important than product-specific skills, which most private institutions focus on. Those skills can be easily acquired later once the fundamental concepts have been grasped.
Yes, some graduates are better than others—OK, some really suck—but that’s only because they’re in it for the money, not because our university’s curriculum isn’t good enough.
(4) Finally, I fail to see why universities should focus on promoting Open Source. Open Source is neither a technology nor a science: it’s a business model, a great one, yes, but still just a business model. It’s not something universities should be concerned about; rather, their concern should be preparing students for whatever technologies and paradigms they go on to work with after they have graduated.
Having said that, Open Source does play a crucial role in universities simply because it means the source code is available to anyone who wants to study it—perfect for a university scenario.
MS:
Good discussion. Some replies to your points.
1. I think the problem we are facing here is that “Cloud Computing” is, as one editor put it, full of mist. There is no clear definition of what Cloud Computing really is. But regardless, Seti@Home was deployed as a large scale Iaas project half a decade before Google.
2. To be clear, I didn’t mean for Microsoft to set up an Open Source based center, I meant there are no other players with enough vested interest to set up a centre at all – Open Source or not. Microsoft is traditionally not into Open Source, as you so correctly point out, but the last few years even they have started supporting several Open Source project, most interestingly for me JQuery.
3. Here is where we part. Perhaps the curriculum covers those areas, but the students produced are not of the right caliber to use those skills in a real scenario. The point is that a student studying IT for 3+ years without knowing how to actually produce something with the skills they have acquired is a joke. Of course fundamental ground-laying concepts have to be taught, but instead of teaching them to do well on tests, teach them how to bloody think. The reliance on text books and structured tests, rather than challenging problem solving is the root cause of it.
4. I didn’t say they had to, I said they are the only ones who really can change the status quo of licensing in Malta. Also, understanding the business models used in deploying software, services and projects is a must. Planning a software means you need to understand where it will end up. It’s tantamount to making a car that runs really well on the moon and trying to sell it in a car showroom. Development is as much about real-life usage as it is about knowing how to code.
The latter kind of thinking is also where Open Source can really shine. There is as much skill in applying other people’s techniques in your project, as it is developing yourself, but without understanding the full scope of the project – including it’s licensing model – you won’t be able to assess when to do what.
Patrik, yes, it’s a good discussion. Probably it’s a bit out of place on this blog but … sorry, Daphne.
Anyway, here are some further thoughts on the subject:
(1) Yes, I agree there’s a lot of mist around Cloud Computing, probably because it’s more of a marketing buzzword than a technology or an architectural style. Suddenly, people “realised” they are already using Cloud Computing and have been doing so since they started using the Internet. That surely didn’t help clear the mist.
To my mind, for an IT infrastructure to qualify as Cloud Computing, it has to have the following properties:
– Virtually unlimited resources and scalability
– Elastic (you know what I mean)
– Multi-tenant
– Utility based pricing model
– Web based API
Of course, there may be other properties which I’m missing, while others may not be regarded as essential.
Technology-wise, I particularly like the notion of “elasticity”. Even though it’s not a new technology but just a new way of using an existing technology (as in the case of AJAX), the idea of allocating and releasing computing resources on demand in near real-time is a splendid one.
Regarding Seti@home and Folding@home, yes, they do fall under the umbrella of Cloud Computing, as all Internet-based computing does, but I tend to think of such infrastructures more as Grid Computing rather than Cloud Computing—I’m still trying to figure out the difference though :-)
(2) Microsoft and Open Source is a complicated matter. Microsoft does support some open source projects, yes, but then shows aggression towards others, especially free (as in Freedom), open source projects that adopt copyleft licenses like GPL (as I write, Microsoft Word keeps underlining the word “copyleft” in red). Take for example jQuery; it has a dual-license model: MIT and GPL. I guess Microsoft have a hand in that odd licensing setup.
(3) The problem you highlight is, unfortunately, present in all courses, not just IT. There will always be good and bad students no matter how much you refine your curriculum and improve the way you deliver it. It’s just a fact of life.
Still, I think our university’s IT curriculum provides a good-enough platform for a motivated student to succeed. What I have noticed though is that new graduates, even the good ones, while their logic is OK, sometimes lack the discipline for producing production-quality code, for example, they swallow exceptions, don’t collect metrics, no logging, improper use of profilers and debuggers, no version control, etc.
MS:
Surely there are better places to discuss this, but perhaps Daphne will let us torture her and her tennants a short while longer.
1. I might not agree fully that it’s just a marketing buzzword. I think it’s an approach more than anything. That said, the lack of definition does incur a problem.
In terms of your list of properties they seem a bit over-defined. The idea is to offer a network infrastructure where services, products, data and processing can be done outside your own network, with great scalability and, as you very correctly point out, offers great elasticity.
Even looking at the Wikipedia article shines very little light on the concept. The paragraph I find most apt in that article is:
“The concept of cloud computing fills a perpetual need of IT: a way to increase capacity or add capabilities on the fly without investing in new infrastructure, training new personnel, or licensing new software.”
It doesn’t have to be multi-tennant, nor does “Cloud Computing” encompass a specific price model or demands an api. (in my opinion)
Again, a very fuzzy word, so hard to pinpoint and if you asked a hundred users of Cloud technology you’d get a hundred different definitions, but in my book I still highlight Seti@Home and Folding@Home as the prime archetypes of Cloud Computing.
Lastly, virtually all technology is a mere way of re-using old technology. An auto-mobile is just a combustion engine with four wheels added, but that doesn’t make Karl Benz any less important as an engineer and an entrepreneur.
2. Microsoft protects their intellectual rights, as would any corporation. I really don’t want to stray away too far from the original discussion, so let’s stay a bit on topic.
This just highlights what I originally said, that there are (to re-phrase somewhat) very few other players who would have any vested interest in setting up said computer centre.
A Copyleft licensed product would, in reality, only be set up by an internal IT work force and as there doesn’t seem to be one with the right competence inside Mita it just won’t happen. I passionately want to see a Cloud Computing centre in Malta and I can’t see a better way to get it done. I have grown quite sentimental of this mad little island I now call home and seeing it progress brings joy to me. Gatt needs to get this right, especially after his double screw-up in the transport sector (the completely failed Taxi reformation and the partially failed Bus reformation). That said, I think he is one of the few people who can actually pull this kind of projects through.
3. I find it hard to dig deeper in this without getting more condescending about Maltese learning in general, but alas. The problem, as I hinted about earlier, is the lack of creative problem solving.
Maltese teaching seem focused on getting students to read something over and over again until they know the texts and data by heart, just so they can score well on a test (I’m simplyfying and generalising at the moment, so bare with me). Such an approach means they will pass their courses, probably with a good result if you measure it on grades alone.
Even on a University level the tasks (or what I’ve seen of them at least) seems to be to say:
“You have Problem A. Now you need to use Language B and Database C, with the approach of Concept D to get Product E.”
They literally pass out a blueprint of what they need to do and then just review coding standards etc. You partly confirmed this yourself in your last sentence. The quality of the code is, of course, important, but actually quite easy to teach (and in general this is not what I have a problem with from University students – their code, I have to admit, is often greatly more “up to standards” than my own). What I’m missing is a little bit of thinking outside the box.
The assigned should be:
“You have Problem A. You need to solve it.”
Or, if you are studying a certain technology:
“You have Problem A. How can Technology B help you in solving this problem”
I’m not a teacher or much of an expert in education, nor do I have much to substantiate my claims with. What I have is 8 years of experience in working within this sector in Malta and the problem is highly endemic.
As a tiny disclaimer I have no problem saying that I have met some absolutely brilliant developers along the way, but my fear is that they are the exception not the norm.
His phrase reminded me a lot of the “20,000 vot maggoranza” speak all the dimwitted MLP supporters dreamed of before the 2008 election.
In my two-decades and change life, I don’t think I’ve ever heard a prominent PN stalwart speak like that.
PN members used to strike me as logicians, deeply tactical and able to distinguish between proper politics and rabble rousing.
It’s the other side that repeats, time and again, “ir-rebha taghna terga tkun.” I enjoyed the “DNA-Dejjem Nirbhu Ahna” quip in the 2008 election, but that was a nod to the grassroots’ posters, and not demagoguery.
I hope that this is all some hack’s fault, yet another example of The Times’ decline to yellow journalism.
Dawn tal-Labour qatt ma jifgaw f’demmhom. Dawn jaghmlu hames snin shah mahruqin, u mhux tlieta jew erbati jiem u daqshekk.
The man speaks his mind and has the stamina to take the flak for it. For him most diplomacy is a waste of time.
I am uncomfortable with his communications style but I’d rather have a couple more MPs of his kind than some of the useless lackeys that currently warm those chairs at the palace.
Daqs mus jaqta Austin! Mhux hekk?
I don’t know, Daphne. The article below seems to confirm Dr Gatt’s boast:
http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/national/muscat-clearly-in-the-lead-as-gonzi-gains-lost-ground
You may say what you want about Malta Today but they usually get their surveys right. And here it shows that the PN is strongly gaining ground whereas the LP is quickly losing it.
[Daphne – Yes, their surveys are always very accurate, but those facts and figures don’t allow for the variables which almost cost Gonzi the last general election, against a man, if you please, in whom people in general had little confidence.]
They might not allow for certain variables but when they saw the PN gaining ground, they signalled it. When they saw the PN ahead, they signalled it. And what they are signalling right now is that the PN is gaining ground against the LP which is losing it.
Sorry to be repetitive.
I believe he best way to forecast the next election is to see what happened in the last one.
Political surveys always include a number of people who do not wish to disclose their preferences, which percentage can swing the election in any direction.
Tried, tested and failed Sant, who one must add conducted an abysmal and embarrassing camapaign full of gaffes, lost the last election with a whisker.
Since then, the PN has pissed off more people and the PL has changed its “leader” which, however dubious his capabilities are, is untried and untested, and some people will always want to try a new product.
What could make Labour lose the next election is another abysmal campaign like the one before it.
Another important thing to think about is the new group of young voters. Who will these vote for? Will they vote forthe same party as their parents?
One must note that for these people, political partisanship, the events of the 1980s and Alfred Sant’s two-year stint mean a lot less than to older age groups in the population. They do not remember them and they don’t care.
Which party leader will win over these voters? Hard to say, but I don’t think the PN is doing itself any favours here being adamantly against divorce (still hasn’t changed its position as far as I know) and the legal recognition of gay relationships.
Malta Today are recently harping about Gozo all the time, and I think they may have a point. How much of Malta’s economic achievements are reaching Gozo and which way will the Gozo vote swing?
Adrian, no need to apologise in emphasising a fact. What do you believe to be the reason behind the ‘trend’ highlighted by these surveys?
Daphne, like many of us, would like the political class to be more astute in understanding and communicating with the electorate.
Carmelo, I am not one who knows how to read trends behind surveys. But what I think is happening is that the PN has stopped the haemorrage of votes and is starting to gain ground again whereas the LP is starting to lose ground itself. And if the LP is already losing ground, it is not a good sign for its chances of ending its opposition term.
The readings must be taken in perspective. The June 2011 is an anomalous reading since it was taken directly after the divorce debacle which was an embarassment for Gonzi. Nobody likes to associate himself or herself with a defeat.
The same aplies to what happened after the MLP defeat in 2008. The reading taken in April 2008 had MLP at about 18% if I am not mistaken but that shot up a few months later.
But things change and this week’s reading is basically on the same lines as the ones before June (give or take 1 or 2%). Make no mistake 9% is a MASSIVE distance between two parties in the Maltese context. If you put the figures in real terms (removing the non-voters and non-comittals) that would shoot up to about 18% – an abyss.
Also don’t be fooled by how Malta Today judge the figures. In June they said that the Ayes and Nayes where on ‘a knife’s edge’ citing 1.5% as the lead. But again this wasn’t in real terms and when calculated properly it accurately stood at 5%.
Of course MT had ulterior motives to stay that that contest was close, as they have in this case by giving the impression that the PL and the PN are close.
The PL only need about a 2% lead in a survey like yesterday’s to wipe the floor with the Nationalists. So they have loads to spare. Of course it will get closer as we go along – that always happens. But how close one can only guess.
Also regarding the university students and their tendency to vote PN once at university I beg to differ. While one can say that as people become more educated they do vote PN, it is also possible that students who come from Nationalist families – in the context of the Maltese society and due to various circumstances – are more likely to attend university and reach higher education.
So in effect it wouldn’t be a case of changing sides but a higher probability of getting Nationalists at university. One would have to see where they are from, their social class and the like to get more hints.
“Cyrus Engerer
I’m glad I resigned over two months ago, would have been too embarrassed with such a speech, although it would have been an extra reason to leave…good riddance!”
Kif telaq hu, il-Partit Nazzjonalista rega beda’ izid fil-popolarita, skond il-poll ta Malta Today.
Good riddance, Cirinu and welcome to Joey’s skip
Poor James Debono, one fresh survey only to have The Times stomping all over it.
I agree with minister Gatt that the Nationalists might still have a chance of winning the next election, but on one condition: that he keeps his word and doesn’t contest.
His arrogance makes P.N. supporters sick, let alone floating voters, if they truly exist.
[Daphne – He doesn’t bother me at all, Silvio. Like Americans (and certainly like the ambassador in that Wikileaked cable) my natural and cultural preference is for straight talkers. Unfortunately, traditional Maltese culture interprets directness as rudeness or arrogance. It is neither of those things. It is directness.]
How manny fiascos, like Arriva, does it take for him to learn some humility?
[Daphne – How is Arriva a fiasco, Silvio? And that is quite apart from the fact that it is precisely because of the qualities that you don’t like that Austin Gatt was able to over-rule those awful owner-drivers and get shot of them. He is Malta’s Margaret Thatcher, with the personality to match.]
On his way out, may I suggest he takes along with him his very capable adviser, Delia.
I wouldn’t go so far as to compare Austin Gatt with Margaret Thatcher, that would be going too far.
As far as arrogance is concerned, I tend to agree with you, but that is as far as I would go.
She came out with flying colours from the Falkland war, but Austin has not yet managed to solve the Arriva problem.
Just try arriving, on time, for an appointment, and you will know what I am talking about.
I don’t know about that. We could always re-annex Gozo after General Giovanna Galtieri seceded from the union. A nice unopposed landing at Mgarr followed by a yomp across the three hills, and then we march into Victoria.
“May it please Your Excellency, the red-and-white flag is flying over BOTH Astra and Aurora and “Malta u Ghawdex” has become, once again, “Malta”.”
Why not ask Austin whether he kicked back word when, at a cabinet meeting some months ago, someone faced him with a 7-digit, skimming question?
Why not ask Austin whether he kicked back a word when, at a cabinet meeting some months ago, someone faced him with a 7-digit, skimming question?
Baxxi s-sound, kev. Ghandek ir-reverb.
No, Baxx. The moderator has been replaced by a drone and the knee-jerk ‘delete’ button is malfunctioning.
Is it an armed drone? I hope so.
From the survey;
‘Labour policies are not even popular with prospective Labour voters’
‘Significantly The PN also enjoys more support for its policies among undecided voters and those who intend not to vote’
Maybe Joseph needs a PN.
WHAT Labour policies?
What sheer Arrogance…I would like ti see their faces two years from now…
Groupthink is a cosy and comforting thing, isn’t it?
I grumble about the Nationalists and then when I think deeply and weigh the good against the bad, I again decide to vote Nationalist. One thing is for sure that apart from many other reasons I will never vote Labour when people from the 80s are still there.
Any more news about that survey. Tried to find it on Malta Today but couldn’t.
Fexin diżaster….
http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/6418/56089092.jpg
So that’s where Gaddafi’s spare camel blanket ended up.
From the bajtar tax’xewk background, must be a 31st March.
Nah. That’s Borg in-Nadur.
http://www.maltastar.com/pages/r1/ms10dart.asp?a=16573
Joseph Muscat has had a bit of a Freudian slip in this video: keeping students out of university is “no longer acceptable”.
Daphne, this is how I see it.
Alfred Sant, Joseph Muscat, Toni Abela etc are highly educated and consequently know that their idiotic policies are bad for Malta.
[Daphne – Alfred Sant is highly educated. The other two are anything but. Education goes way beyond a university degree and I don’t mean ‘edukat’, either. Yet even Sant thought and still thinks that his policies were the best for Malta.]
So what do they do to acquire power? They deliberately take the opposite national policies of the PN and wickedly convince their poorly educated supporters that their policies are better for them and their children knowing full well that they don’t believe in them.
[Daphne – That perfectly describes Dom Mintoff’s cynicism. He manipulated while he mocked. But Sant is convinced that he is right while Muscat is too shallow to care either way.]
When the MLP’s educated discover that their perverse game isn’t working as even their uneducated people are discovering that they are dead wrong, the MLP’s leadership make a U-turn after U-turn.
This is the corrupted mind of the MLP. It’s a shame, because with a good Opposition, our standard of living would have been a lot better. The 16 turmoil years under MLP were just the lost years that many Maltese families will never feel have been made up for.
The subliterate elves at the Facebook Group ‘NO FOR GONZI’ posted this comment on the maltatoday comments board:
Submitted on Mon, 09/19/2011 – 19:07.
Joseph Calleja … our only hope
http://tinyurl.com/3hz9633
no for gonzi
Then they realised that an opera singer might not be that great at running the country, so they sent in an update:
Joseph MUSCAT … Malta’s only hope out of this murk
http://tinyurl.com/3hz9633
no for gonzi
Daphne,
Rega beda jberraq ghall-iskejjel tal-Knisja….
http://www.maltastar.com/pages/r1/ms10dart.asp?a=16580
Tal-Labour ma jitghallmu qatt. Ghandhom kontra l-iskejjel tal-knisja u diga bdew jaghtu l-indiakazzjoni li la jitilghu fil-gvern ser jergghu jibdel jindahlulhom.
“News
Labour proposals to avoid disappointment for B.Ed. students
20 September 2011 09:20 The Labour Party said that restrictions in B.Ed courses could be avoided if the government made in mandatory for Church schools to provide student-teacher placements.
The proposal was made by Labour MP Evarist Bartolo spokesman on Education. The Faculty of Education announced last Friday that a number of B.Ed. students will not be allowed in”.
From Maltastar today. Their mentality never changes.
Nikita Alamango
- can finally breathe !
Like · · 46 minutes ago via mobile · Privacy:
Cyrus Engerer and Lorenzo Vella like this.
Cyrus Engerer long time no see nik..u ok?
39 minutes ago · Like
Nikita Alamango im fine :) vera im busy plus you were abroad le :p
29 minutes ago · Like
Cyrus Engerer yep..came back last saturday and exhausted..too many flights in a short span of time
28 minutes ago · Like
Nikita Alamango Yeah its a hassle. Was it worth it at least ? Are the Greek Islands worth a visit ?
27 minutes ago · Like
Cyrus Engerer Holidays are quite subjective…I prefer city holidays rather than island ones. I guess islands are nice if you want to spend a lot of time doing nothing by the beach, since there is hardly anything else to do. In that regard, Malta would be a great island to visit cause it also has so much more to offer..
24 minutes ago · Like
Nikita Alamango Im sure about that. Yeah well we ve got London and Brux to look forward to – City enough?
18 minutes ago · Like
Cyrus Engerer Excellent! Looking forward…need to buy flight tickets to Brux acrually..
15 minutes ago · Like
Nikita Alamango Yep ! Most of us bought them already ! Hope i ll see you around soon
14 minutes ago · Like
Cyrus Engerer yes we have to catch up!
Menu,
Mandatory replacements……….who decides what?
Interesting.
Daphne, I was amazed when you asked how Arriva is a fiasco. Ask the tourists, please, ask the comuters waiting for ages on bus stops.
[Daphne – Silvio, the commuters waiting for ages on bus-stops wait for ages on bus-stops because they haven’t yet taken on board the novel concept of reading a time-table before heading out to wait for a bus. So they turn up at the stop at 3.35pm (having just missed the 3.30pm bus) then wait for an hour short of five minutes for the next one, and complain about the outrage. The system has changed but they haven’t. They still turn up randomly at bus-stops waiting haphazardly for buses to turn up on an ad hoc basis. One question The Times reporters fail to ask their complaining interviewees: “Madam, did you look at the time-table before you left home?”]
I remember Austin Gatt using bombastic words about the revolution in our bus service.
[Daphne – He’s damn right it’s a revolution. The last time I got on a bus I swore to myself that next time I’d walk. And only Austin Gatt could have dealt with those ghastlydrivers and squashed them.]
Also he quoted Mao Tse Tung from all people to say ‘the revolution must go on and not stop. Daphne you yourself know that in an other democratic country Austin would have been booted out.
[Daphne – Where did Austin Gatt quote Mao? Please cite chapter and verse and don’t heed gossip. Gatt is not the sort who would quote anyone, still less Chairman Mao, for heaven’s sake. ‘In any other democratic country Austin would have been booted out’. Wrong. It is precisely because Malta is a democratic country that he is there. The people elected him, and only the people can remove him, if they so wish. His capabilities as a government minister are not in doubt. Nobody else could have handled the bus drivers, and in fact, nobody did. Now if you are going to carp about bus-routes, and see the glass half empty instead of half full, and feel nostalgic for the recent past of stinking dumps on wheels piloted by savages who turn up when they feel like it, go ahead.]
I heard his quote myself on TV when the service was introduced ( with fireworks on the ground in Valletta new terminus )