When government propaganda gets this blatantly false and misleading, it’s time to really wake up
Whatever your political beliefs, if you are subjected to blatantly false and misleading propaganda designed to manipulate the minds of the thoroughly uneducated, it is a normal reaction to be upset and angry for being treated like an idiot, because the political party you respect does not respect you (and I don’t mean ‘respect your intelligence’, because a political party should respect all regardless of their level of intelligence) and because instead of transparent government we have a government that it is still campaigning, and campaigning by desperate measures.
I do not get upset at much on the Labour Party’s TV news or its website Maltastar, but this sort of thing – now that both work for government propaganda rather than merely party propaganda – is actually quite frightening, that they are prepared to go so far.’
They have taken official statistics released by Valletta and Brussels which show that over the last few weeks, Malta has had zero inflation. And they have brazenly and falsely said that this is the direct result of the lower electricity tariffs: this when most people have not even received their bills yet, but only an odd letter from Konrad Mizzi in an ARMS envelope.
Even if we had all received our bills and paid them already, this would not affect the rate of inflation in the immediate/short term. It is not an ‘overnight effect’. Also, if the electricity tariff reduction is to have the effect the prime minister hopes it will – that of freeing up more spending money for households – then it will raise inflation and not depress it. That’s what consumer spending does.
The causes of a lower or higher inflation rate are complex and interwoven, and it is frighteningly simplistic for a government to try to sell those it governs that zero inflation over the course of a few weeks is the result of ‘lower’ electricity bills it has just posted to consumers. One of the reasons we have had zero inflation over the last few weeks is because consumer spending has fallen by quite a bit over the last few months, and sellers are slashing prices in an attempt at drumming up whatever business they can. The real estate market is also doing badly other than at the high end, and those who need to sell and can’t afford to wait are forced to lower their prices to do it.
A zero rate of inflation, if planned for carefully, can be a positive thing (though a very low rate of inflation is better). When it happens as a result of a progression of events, it can be not a good thing at all, but a warning sign of trouble in the market.
Over to the Labour Party’s televison station and to its news website:
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http://maltastar.com/dart/20140516-malta-inflation-rate-lower-than-eu-average
Not surprising at all. Their whole electoral campaign was misleading.
Daphne, what do you make of the trust ratings published by Malta Today?
“Crucially for Muscat, he leads Opposition leader Simon Busuttil by 16 points in the trust barometer – up 3 points from last week. ”
Seriously?
[Daphne – Their polls are generally quite accurate, and I don’t expect anything different. Muscat had a 36,000 majority just over a year ago, and people who made the psychological shift to voting Labour will seek to avoid the discomfort of cognitive dissonance by voting Labour again to prove a point to themselves. That’s the way it is. I simply accept it. It is the voting-behaviour equivalent of ‘throwing good money after bad’ in business terms – repeatedly investing in something which has little chance of success because you don’t want to admit that it needs to be shut down; or staying in a bad relationship because you don’t want to admit failure to yourself.]
It’s also true that Busuttil sounds like the PN’s lawyer sometimes, not its leader.
What stands out in the surveys is the large number of people answering don’t know, and the fact that they have increased since last week rather than decreased.
As we get closer to the election, people should increasingly make up their mind, so the don’t knows should decrease. This may suggest that people are scared to voice their opinion as to which party they support even if the survey is anonymous.
True. I call it “The Malta Shipbuilding effect”.
When inflation falls suddenly, it is bad news and not good news.
Indeed, inflation falls almost always when unemployment rises.
On something different, I suspect that last Friday’s Xarabank was no triumph for the PL representatives. The show has not yet been posted on the TVM ‘on demand’ site.
Usually it is there by Saturday late morning.
This drop in inflation is ominous.
Some of the people in business I know are saying that their drop in sales over the past year is approaching 50 percent.
No wonder inflation is rock bottom. It tends to follow the velocity of money.
From memory, electricity and water represent about 6% of the Malta CPI basket, so a 15-20% reduction will lead to a drop in the inflation rate of about 1%.
Low inflation is a cause of concern. Healthy economies always have around 2% inflation, and this rate is taken as a norm even by central bankers which do not intervene until the rate hits or exceeds 3%. In the UK, for instance, the governor of the Central Bank is required to “send a letter” to the Chancellor of the Exchequer when the rate hits 3%.
The published rate is being used to give some “positive energy” to an otherwise disillusioned electorate and to “charge the vote.” In practice, households have not seen the effect as yet, because they have not seen the bills.
It is only the consumer price index which is affected here. Industry and commerce have not benefited at all from the reduction in the price of electricity or water. So the use of this selective propaganda can be harmful to business if customers start to expect the prices of goods and services not to go up, and this could in fact create more unemployment.
But what this propaganda does not say is that it shows a ONE TIME negative impact on the inflation rate statistic due to the ONE TIME reduction in the price of electricity and water. In May, the inflation rate for May will not have such negative impact, even if the cumulative rate for the year will show such impact.
On a month by month basis, there was no reason why the inflation rate of March, February, January and all the way back should have been higher than in April – except for this one time negative adjustment – because the prices of electricity and water were not rising on a month by month basis. The unit rates of electricity and water have now been fixed for some years.
The chart at 0.24 tells a “negative energy” story about the economy under Joseph Muscat’s Labour government, even if the Super One propaganda is trying to use this chart to charge some votes.
The chart shows that the inflation rate was still above 2% until January 2013 and even some way into the first quarter of 2013.
Then, from around April 2013, the inflation rate fell below 2% and has remained below that level ever since. At more than one point, it was even below 0.5%.
Any economist will tell you that this situation gives a “negative energy.” The overall trend is suggesting that the economy is in the risk of deflation (negative inflation).
Other economies have had recent experience with deflation. The first signs of a deflation is a reduction in credit to the economy by the banks. The risk is usually associated with situations where banks, following a period of rapid economic and related monetary expansion, find themselves faced with high losses on their loans to the economy, and as a reaction, they stop giving new credit to the economy, mainly because they become unable to do so and they focus on collecting their exposures – this is something which happened to Japan in 1990. It was followed by Japan’s financial and banking crisis, and the Japanese economy is still dealing with the fallout from that crisis which led to major banks merging, becoming insolvent and others liqudiated.
Back to the situation in Malta. If you add in the increasing unemployment and the drop in exports and imports, there are signs here about the Maltese economy which should be worrying.
There is another thing. The Super One propaganda must explain why, according to their chart at 0.24, the inflation rate was below 0.5% also at around July 2013 and January 2014. Did the government reduce the water and electricity rates back then and we did not realise?
I cannot believe that Joseph Muscat, after a year of living by the LIE can muster a majority. I, personally don’t have that feeling. I know of many who have the same feeling based on many friends’ feelings.
With exports crashing, sales too, lies, damned lies and cooked statistics, this government should be dead in the water by now.
Sant lost 21000 votes in two years and he only lied abut one thing: VAT.
[Daphne – You can’t go on feelings. You have to go by facts and survey results. You can only pick up feelings from your own group, and that is hugely misleading. The only thing that causes a haemorrhage of votes is serious economic problems that affect the consumer directly. Electors will not pick up or act on warnings signs in the rate of inflation or the widening trade deficit or other macro indicators. They will act when they can’t sell and are too scared to buy even the smallest treat. That is what happened with Sant: his VAT to CET changes disrupted the economy so badly that business ground to a halt within months. The situation was compounded by very high utilities bills and a sense of instability by the constant fights in parliament, most prominently with Mintoff. People were immediately affected and became fearful that it would get even worse.]
Is zero inflation good or bad for the economy?
Overall bad. But there are positives and negatives. But you will notice that pretty much all inflation targeting countries (look at Australia for example, the target is 2-3%) try to keep inflation above zero. So most agree that a small amount of inflation is better than no inflation.
The main negative is that deflation is very bad. It is normally the result of a slowing economy, and once it happens it slows the economy further because it is more attractive to simply hold cash than make investments.
So it is a downward spiral and quite difficult to get out of (look at Japan for example). Zero inflation means that a tiny downward movement puts the country in deflation.
Muscat calls himself an economist. The probability is that he actually believes this latest boast. That’s far more frightening than his habitual lies.
http://www.independent.com.mt/mobile/2014-05-18/news/finance-ministry-evades-the-central-questions-5048827905/
Labour plays on people’s ignorance. it knows there are more people who are ignorant of what a low or zero inflation means and those people have as much of a vote as you and I.
The Simon Busuttil trust barometer is VERY worrying. While there is a general feeling among switchers and even Labour supporters that the meritocracy issue and arrogance/vulgarity of this government is disconcerting, people find it difficult to connect with Busuttil.
He comes across as inconsistent. His manner of speech is unconvincing, lacking strategy by letting Labour set the debate agenda. In my view even the fact that he has not come clean about the PN’s finances, and how it plans to solve its debt mountain, is having an effect.
PN supporters are feeling so much the underdogs that they have given up on the party able to make a turnaround to get anywhere close to being an alternative government in four years’ time.
Crucially people don’t see Busuttil as a viable person to be prime minister and hence this huge gap in the trust barometer.
The polls should naturally be showing a stronger rating for the Opposition leader than the party. It is expected that the electorate will not, just after 14 months, switch back to PN – but the PN leader should be neck and neck, if not higher, in the trust barometer with Muscat.
Switching back to PN will then follow when you have a strong trust in its leader, and are convinced that he/she can lead an alternative government. PN can never win an election with its leader trailing in the trust barometer.
This is amply demonstrated in the Sant leadership losing 3 consecutive elections. People wanted the PN out of government but did not trust Alfred Sant.
So it may well turn out that both parties will suffer from a low turnout, with the PN failing to make any significant inroads.
“He comes across as inconsistent. His manner of speech is unconvincing, lacking strategy by letting Labour set the debate agenda. In my view even the fact that he has not come clean about the PN’s finances, and how it plans to solve its debt mountain, is having an effect.”
I totally disagree with your view about Simon Busuttil. Just because he does not scream his head off, stamp his feet or use vulgar language, does not mean he lacks strategy. I think you and several others are repeating the PL mantra against Dr. Busuttil and beginning to believe it yourselves.
He comes out clean, clear-headed and knows exactly what steps to follow to move slowly but surely towards cornering Dr. Joseph Muscat. He is not as pompous as JM surely but I find him very convincing in the way he speaks the truth.
Given time I am sure he will prove to all what a meritocratic statesman he really is.
It’s not a two-state system where you either scream your head off or bore your audience. Passion is the word.
Eddie Fenech Adami became leader in 1977. He started to be noticed after October 1979.
“Malta will need to reduce the financial incentives it provides for industrial investment following a European Commission decision taken on May 7, Opposition leader Simon Busuttil said today.”
What in god’s name does this even mean? Busuttil’s problem is right there in this statement.
I read it, and I retain nothing.
It doesn’t tell me his position.
It doesn’t give me his own plan.
It uses the EU as a crutch, as if it was the EU and not him that was chiding the government.
Of course he’s the better man. Far better. By miles. But politics is about far more than being the better man. It’s about leadership, and about connecting with people.
It doesn’t help that the business of politics is carried out in Maltese. But Busuttil needs to break through that fourth wall and reach out to his audience.
Or we’re doomed.
It means Muscat f*cked up by not negotiating a deal in Malta’s favour, which means Malta is less competitive for investors, which means less investment, which means more unemployment, which means less flus fil-but, which means lower consumer spending, etc.
Imma l-aqwa li qed inbieghu il-passaporti bir-ribass ha nhallsu il-bread and circuses biex ikomplu jivvotaw ghal Gowzef.
@Baxxter
I read this into it: A frustration in which a stronger message is not reaching the majority, or more of that majority.
I agree that everything – as in everything – needs to be dumbed down. No use expecting the majority of people to understand, if they are listening at all.
The one Busuttil phrase that everyone has retained is that under Labour Malta is proceding “Gas down ghal gol-hajt.”
If that wasn’t powerful.
Dumbing down also means translating, with careful attention as to structure and to the obfuscating strategy used on the Labour end, what the precise value given or loss of value equates to for the man in the street. Expecting people to join the dots is to have spoken past them.
Dumbing down is not necessarily constant repetition of the same thing, but a simplified visible manner of presenting the point-to-point logic arrived at, pointing out where the dots are missing with Labour, or are being masked over, and what these are.
Where the dot-to-dot logic is fallacious, one would need to identify the dots and point out and explain the reason that logic is fallacious.
It has nothing at all to do with being negative.
Pictorial and factual data representation work wonders on this score.
A thorough risk assessment is what all successful projects need at the outset. Without it, someone, at some point, will have to pick up the pieces and that is generally the tax-payer.
“Positive” at the outset and negative result with hindsight is where Labour is rushing about creating a flurry. The dizzyness is there to distract. The name-calling an effort to pre-condition how communication is received.
“Positive” for Labour equals zero transparency, naghmlu x’irridu, electorate keep your mouth shut.
What one knows needs to be simplified. The process of simplification requires a greater effort in the manner and choice of communication.
It is useless knowing more, having a stronger argument, having a better policy, if the manner of communication leaves the onus of the simplification and translation process on the receiver of the communication.
Frustration can be turned into passion.
Natalie – please explain why Busuttil is 16 points behind Muscat in the trust barometer, if he is indeed slowly but surely cornering Muscat.
The fact that PN is 7 points behind Labour but Busuttil is 16 points behind Muscat is very telling.
Survey questions can be misleading. When you vote PL, you get Joseph Muscat and the whole lot.
Likewise if you vote PN, you get Simon Busuttil and the rest of the team.
When you are voting you will concentrate on the party and not the individual. You either want the PN to govern or you choose a Labour administration. There are exceptions and there will be voters who don’t reason this way but the majority will.
This is not to say that certain personalities are not more appealing to others to various sections of the electorate.
We shall consult the ‘ultimate’ barometer on May 25th. Then we shall see who was closer in predictions based solely on polls which, as stated above often react to loaded questions and accidental survey patterns.
Having said that, Busuttil & Co should IMMEDIATELY stop apologizing and repeating reasons for losing last elections.
Reminding voters of past mistakes gnaws the grass roots of the party itself. The constant mention that the PN does not have the money to rent more billboards, as the LP has, is counterproductive.
Was there not supposed to be a committee responsible for turning the financial woes around?
How are fundraising events panning out?
Busuttil needs to be more forceful. The situation calls for it. And he should never sit among supporters at PN meetings. He should stand up, walk to a prominent spot and establish himself as the party leader, not simply a loyal party man.
Robert Abela said this morning that’ under PN Malta was f’xifer l-irdum and the Pl government ‘s priority was to avoid the disaster.’ Now we have made the great leap forward .
… into the abyss
Regarding the letter I had recieved these days from the Hon Minister Konrad Mizzi. well he grandly informed me that if my consumption follows the past twelve months trend then my next bill will be 37% cheaper. Good to know.
However there are some other facts that I should have been told. Firstly I would have liked to have been given a breakdown of how the 37% figure was worked out.
Secondly the minister is also responsible for health, so he should have also informed me for how long will my medicine be out of stock, because having to fork out the money to buy my medicinal needs would wipe out this saving within a month or two.
And finally how come that my personal data (name, address and customer number) was made available to a ministry from Enemalta. This is in breach of Data Protection because this data is available to Enemalta soley so that they can work out my bills and not to be given to politicians for use in a propaganda exercise.