Where are the votes going?
In the 2004 EP election, the Nationalist Party polled 97,688 of the 304,283 registered votes and the 250,692 that actually turned out to vote.
In 2009, it polled 100,486 votes of the 322,441 registered and the 254,039 who actually did vote.
This year, it took the votes of 99,821 electors of the 344,374 registered and the 257,588 who turned up to the booth.
Labour polled 118,893 in 2004, 135,917 in 2009 and 132,808 now.
For all his trumpeting, triumphalism and self-praise, Muscat actually lost 3,109 of his own vote (he was party leader in 2009) in this EP election, and this despite the number of registered voters having increased by 22,000.
There is another thing that struck me. Muscat now claims that the 132,808 votes for the Labour Party in this EP election are a validation of his government’s one-year performance and his own performance as prime minister.
So how would be describe his party’s 135,917 votes in the EP election of 2009 – as a validation of his nine-month performance as Opposition leader?
‘Labour is growing stronger’, the same old hackneyed political observers (who are actually just retired politicians) have been quoted as saying in Times of Malta. ‘And the Nationalist Party is not persuasive’.
Well, actually that’s completely incorrect. The reality is that neither party has gained a single EP vote since 2009. On the contrary, both pulled in fewer votes this year than they did in 2009. The Labour Party had 3,000 fewer and the Nationalist Party had 600 fewer.
The big growth surge for Labour came between 2004 and 2009, when the number of registered voters increased by around 20,000 and it pulled in 17,024 more votes in 2009 than it had in 2004.
After that, everything stagnated on the EP electoral front – for both the PN and Labour. Or rather, not stagnated, but slid right back, with the number of registered electors rising by a further 20,000 and yet both the PN and Labour losing votes in real terms.
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This year the PN got 100 786 and not 99 821 first count votes. Therefore is was the party which actually increased the number of votes on the 2009 election.
PN polled 100,785 this year so actually increased its share by a few hundreds over the 2009 election. What I find strange is why did those who voted PN in the last election failed to vote again PN in this one. It is something the party has to look into.
Are you sure those numbers are correct? As far as I know, the PN got 100785 and the PL got 134462 in this year’s elections.
Actually one can say that PN was very consistent in its performance (albeit a negative performance).
PN got 39%, 39.6%,38.8% of cast votes in 04,09,14 respectively.
PL got 47.4%, 53.5%, 51.6% of cast votes in 04,09,14 respectively.
One can say that 2% of cast voters are convinced that the PL delegates in EP are underperforming.
This can also mean that 39% of cast voters consistently prefer the PN at the EP. Meanwhile the rest 61% are undecided between PL, AD, Norman Lowell and all others.
Seems that the so called floaters float only between PL and everyone else and never towards PN. It does say something and the floaters preferences.
Spot on.
Actually, considering that the PL pulled out all the stops to bring out its vote, while the PN didn’t even bother with street leaders this time round, Joseph Muscat has reason to worry a lot more about the 90,000+ voters who failed to show up or voted for the smaller parties than for the perceived losses he inflicted on the Nationalist Party.
Those 90,000+ voters are the virgin territory that the PN needs to win back. Those are the voters who didn’t fall for Muscat but who at the same time are still angry at the PN for one reason or another.
Personally I think it is pointless to interpret the election results, both the MEPs and last year’s election, in conventional terms as it assumes that people vote with their heads, and that Malta is a normal functioning democracy. Neither of these things are true.
All this talk of the PN “getting the message” is disingenuous and part of the bullying tactics used by Muscat to get what he wants: a Malta with no opposition.
We see these numbers and statistics, but what we are not seeing, or rather admitting, is that behind those votes and statistics are lots of made up jobs, building permits, parking bays, favours and other undemocratic activity that Malta is once again being dragged into.
Typical Labour, complaining about the existence of poverty but then going around and actually creating the perfect environment for poverty to flourish in: the existence of many informal networks involving the political class that create vulnerable and detached communities that hate one another.
The message the electorate sent is clear: buy our vote and we will vote for you. Is this the country we want? Is this the type of democracy we want? I think not.
It’s true that, in a country that doesn’t have much money, people get tired of making sacrifices and having to make do. It’s true that life is a scary place without money. It’s true that some sections of society in Malta are resentful and afraid of others, but I believe that the Maltese are above all this, and that we should remember that we are the children and grandchildren of a generation that survived the war.
Where is that George Cross spirit today? I think it is needed, because with it we can bring back formality and respect towards our political institutions which we lost under Mintoff and can’t seem to get back. My generation, for example, have no knowledge of it.
Therefore all these “journalists” and “commentators” that seem to always toe the PL party line as though the Party Whip is breathing down their backs had better check themselves before deceiving themselves and others or they will find themselves just as guilty once the truth, which Muscat seems hell bent on concealing for some reason, comes out, like they did when the passport scheme surfaced, or when the push backs were announced.
Another point to make is that Labour polled 167,536 in the general election last year.
So 35,000 people who voted Labour last year do not approve of this government.
The total number of votes polled by the PN this year is 300 more than that of 5 years ago: 100,785 (got this from the Electoral Comission’s official results).
Although the 34,000 deficit between the two still exists, it is important that this result should be examined carefully.