4-2: the sixth seat goes to Labour
Published:
June 8, 2009 at 4:53pm
You heard it here first: the sixth seat is certainly going to Labour. I’m not even going to attempt explaining why and how, because it’s one of those things I can only do by jotting the figures down on a piece of paper. But basically, this is it. Simon Busuttil is elected outright having achieved (and greatly exceeded) the quota. David Casa is set for the second seat. Roberta Metsola is next. Labour’s line-up is Louis Grech, Edward Scicluna and Joseph Cuschieri. Marlene Mizzi is next. As the votes are transferred from one candidate to another, Mizzi is going to accumulate enough to put her ahead of Metsola.
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100% true now
There’s another way how to look at it, Daphne. Had the Nats had some sense and not let Marthese Portelli contest, Roberta would have taken that 4th seat. She was doing great in Gozo, until the Nats fielded Portelli.
I totally agree
Also, with hindsight, probably it would have made more sense for the Nationalists not to have more than 5 or 6 candidates. This would have not spread the votes so much.
And meanwhile:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markmardell/2009/06/m.html
But are you sure that the 6th seat will go to Labour? Or is there a possibility that things change?
thanks
[Daphne – Yes, I’m sure.]
Labour deserve the sixth seat after yesterday’s result. I’m sure Marlene Mizzi can do a good job in the EP.
Yes I’m sure they do, after all I believe they managed 68,782 votes between their top 3.
Can you be sure at this stage? A little more than 5% of Steve Borg’s (MLP) votes went to other parties too.
[Daphne – Yes. I have a man with a calculator, but he’s not Edward Scicluna.]
Ok, did the maths for myself and seems you’re right (except it still depends on how the Cassola, Lowell, and Josie cookies crumble, so there may be a tiny bit of hope yet)
Edward is really good at it.
I’m not so sure I agree with your reasoning. If you remove Marlene Mizzi’s current votes, Labour do not have enough for three quotas, so probably she could be eliminated in order to elect the third Labour MEP.
[Daphne – It’s not my reasoning. It’s all down to a quirk in the system that will have Roberta Metsola dropped and Labour’s ‘hanging’ candidate included.]
The situation will only be clear once all 5 MEPs are elected, and the remaining candidate with the highest number of votes will then be next in line for the sixth seat.
[Daphne – It can be predicted already. That candidate will be Labour’s, and almost certainly Marlene Mizzi.]
Look at it another way, Labour currently have 3.3 quotas, while PN have 2.42 quotas. 0.42 is more than 0.3, so the chance is still there.
[Daphne – No, really, it isn’t. That’s what I thought too, but then I got a complicated explanation as to why it wasn’t going to happen.]
Did you account for non-transferable votes?
Mathematically the PL has three full quotas plus 12,000 surplus votes. The PN has two full quotas plus some 17,000 surplus votes.
The PL gained 1000 votes on the second count from Simon Busuttil’s tally of 68,000+ votes. So unless the PL keeps inheriting more votes from the PN, Roberta might still be in with a chance for the 6th seat.
[Daphne – I will have a post up within an hour or so explaining why this is not possible.]
Your assumptions are very close but one has to wait for the last counts. We may still notice trends of distribution related to certain candidates. Joe is leading Marlene, but anything can happen. tx
No worries, the EPP will dominate the European parliament. European citizens have seen through the socialist/commie/68er claptrap, even in France, which says it all.
Incidentally, Le Figaro describes the Nationalist Party as the “liberal right”.
On France 24, they describe moderate EPP parties as liberal right. For the French right wing parties are the ones like Le Pen, Lega, etc
I don’t agree. There is no pattern that dictates this has to happen. Things are too fluid at the moment. We will know for sure once Cini and Frank Portelli are eliminated.
Ahhh – the feud between Marlene Mizzi and Roberta Metsola continues.
[Daphne – You men always like a nice cat-fight. I think it gets your juices going.]
The above is true if the same ratio of votes as those of Simon Busuttil are not transferred between PN candidates. Also at count 10, there are 11,641 votes between Arnold Cassola, Norman Lowell and Josie Muscat – who knows where those will go?
Ironic, we voted for Europe, but Labour voted for the candidates. This country gets stranger everyday.
It is still too early to say. But it is a possibility.
However I noted that cross-party voting has been minimal which means that now at the 9th count the Nationalists still have a 4,000 advantage on Labour to end up as the runner-up.
Why can’t the Nationalists be at least a tiny little bit graceful and take a defeat – an insignificant defeat by their own argument – for what it is, a defeat?
The comments I just heard from phone-ins on Radio 101 beggar belief. And where is the PN heading now? Judging by these calls we’re in for four years of “nghinu lin-nies taghna”.
[Daphne – Isn’t that the message Labour is selling, or did I misunderstand? It’s gathering those who are upset about something specific or upset generally, and making vague promises.]
In any case, the PN should never forget old Maltese wisdom which says “min joghla hafna jiehu sabta kbira”. The country is simply yearning for change, as it showed in the last general elections. Will the PN now try to reach out or will it close within itself?
The show will be enjoyable, that is for sure!
[Daphne – I find watching the other side far more entertaining, including the copycat rerun of Sant’s campaign strategy in 1996. No imagination, jahasra – but I suppose, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.]
Where the fourth seat is going does not change the fact that the PN got thrashed at the polls. The people are sovereign.
That the vote was a protest one doesn’t hold water either. We were spoiled for choice. If I wanted to protest I could have found one party to vote for apart the PL.
The PN has to shed all excuses and stop beating around the bush. They have to face facts as no rubber or paint thinner can wash away that people are fed up with arrogance, incompetent ministers and nil accountability.
[Daphne – Bring back Labour’s ‘new’ team then, what can I say.]
Sorry, but for once I do not agree with you. PL after the 10th count have a total of 136,351 votes which is equal to 3.29 quotas (quota = 41,362).
0.29 = 11,994
PN has 100,397 votes which transforms into 2.42 quotas.
0.42 translates into 17,372 votes
Have you factored for AD’s second preferences? Most of Cassola’s votes should transfer to PN.
[Daphne – And a number of Simon Busuttil’s transferred to Cassola.]
@ joseph
Are you kidding me? Which fourth seat? I think you meant the third seat.
What a shame. And to think that they were against us joining the European Union. I hope all those who ‘protested’ are happy with the result.
[Daphne – They are, because it’s what they wanted.]
L-aqwa li ‘BOV 35 million bond issue over-subscribed in a few hours’.
Why were they saying 3 to 3 then? To make us angrier?
[Daphne – That’s what it looked like initially, 3 to 3.]
Am waiting eagerly for the post you mentioned because I cannot agree with you at the moment. I am only looking at numbers since I have no idea where the preferences are on the ballot sheets.
Aw Daphne, your taste is not my taste, except that yesterday your ‘Taste’ was superb. Can you please issue a cookery book with all the recipes? It’s tedious to go through all the previous magazines to find the recipe that I like.
[Daphne – Use the search facility on http://www.taste.com.mt ]
Hmmm …. I did my arithmatic. Perhaps Daphne is right after all. The current transferring of votes among Labour candidates does not have a very strong candidate (the PN had Simon Busuttil).
Thus the four Labour candidates nearing the end would have circa 30,000 to 34,0000 votes each. All of them should be circa 11,000 to 15,000 votes short of the quota.
But this means that Marlene Mizzi will be ahead of Tedesco Triccas perhaps by few thousand votes. Simple mathematics.
I’m following the news by looking at this blog, the online Times and Malta Today.
Can anyone tell me why Karl Stagno Navarra has switched sides – he seems to have become very pro-Muscat/LP. Wasn’t he the PN reporter or have I got it wrong?
[Daphne – Yes, he worked for the Nationalist Party.]
He got fired for other non political reasons
The PL got 3.29 quotas, while the PN got 2.43 quotas, so one might expect a 3-3 to be more likely than a 4-2.
However, the PL has four candidates that are doing well. If Casa keeps getting the bulk of the PN transfers, Triccas won’t be able to overhaul Labour’s fourth-best candidate.
Before I come to the same conclusion that Mizzi will have the sixth seat, I would wait for the transfer of the votes of the Gozitan Labour candidate. If the Gozitans voted for the two Gozitan candidates, whatever their political party, Marthese Portelli might receive a substantial number of votes that might eventually be inherited by PN candidates. This could favour Roberta. … a lot of mights and could !
Karl Stagnao Navarro was removed from the Nationalist Party.
How sure are you about David Casa second runner up? He isn’t aware of this news I can assure you. Anything to substantiate your claim?
Thanks
@NGT
Typical Nationalist hegemonic thinking. If someone does not follow 100 percent the party line, then he has “switched to the other side”. No wonder the difference in votes is 35,000 away from the PN.
Oh Christ – I ask a simple question and I get attacked by someone who wants to show blog readers that he’s read Gramsci and Althusser.
Now my question was… wasn’t Karl Stagno Navarra a PN journalist/reporter? I wasn’t criticising what he wrote in Malta Today. I was simply making an observation and asking a simple question. Ok?
Allow me to state the following : 1. I was never fired from the PN. 2. Everybody knows my political opinion, so why the question? 3. Who is to judge my political opinion. 4. I was, am and will continue to be a journalist, with a free mind. 5. If I write a report about a speech, please don’t judge or be patronising. 6. I refuse to be conditioned by either party. 7. Once out of the PN media machine, kindly allow me to guard jealously my free mind and freedom of expression. 8. I am Maltese and European, my political orientation becomes irrelevant. 9. Just let journalists work freely, and stop this nonsense of asking hypothetical and irrelevant questions about my political orientation. 10. Never was and will be a mercenary, as many in this country have proven to be. With this, I consider the issue closed.
Karl Stagno-Navarra
No, Albert, Karl Stagno Navarra does not form part of the Nationalist Party, therefore he is free to join anyone.
http://doi.gov.mt/EN/elections/2009/EU_Parlelections/eu_parl1.asp
http://www1.di-ve.com/
Muscat has his two stooges, but on the PN side the situation is not better. Gonzi has Paul Borg Olivier and Tonio Borg, who do not exactly attract any sympathy. Tonio Borg is stuck in political theory and ideology, while Borg Olivier is simply clueless.
Today he declared that he is relieved that the PN did not lose the second seat. Worst of all he came out with the proposal that the PN needs to abide by the document “Xibka ta’ Komunikazzjoni” to move ahead. What the heck is this? First of all that document is over five years old, completely obsolete and worst of all, full of theoretical b*shit. It’s time to get out of this dogma, and become practical and pragmatic.
After all, the people are not sophisticated, and do not read any documents. It’s the image which counts. Simple PR. The people in the streets were impressed with the VAT on car registration issue, even though it’s all bullshit, and we have to fork out the EUR50 million. Same story with mobile phone rates – it’s a lie, but the people do not go to the EU website to read the exact chain of events.
In the US Obama won with a couple of slogans. No policies, nothing. He was lucky because after eight years of disaster with Bush, people wanted someone decent, just that. He was also lucky to face a lousy campaign on his opponents’ side.
I couldn’t agree more – I’ve just seen parts of Bondi+ and I have to admit that Jason spoke a hell of a lot better than Paul Borg Olivier who simply avoided questions by beating around the bush.
Anyone would have found it tough-going to outshine his predecessor but Paul Borg Olivier, by any stretch of the imagination, was a poor choice especially when considering the odds one has to overcome to get remotely close to winning an election after three consecutive wins.
Xenophobic parties fared well across Europe. I wonder whether a portion of the MLP vote was a result of the panic related to illegal immigrants amongst the Maltese.
Does that mean that it pays not be principle-based and simply ride on public sentiment?
“Does that mean that it pays not be principle-based and simply ride on public sentiment?”
Apparently it does.