Don’t read too much into voter turn-out

Published: March 9, 2008 at 1:52am

In 2003, turn-out was 96% and the Nationalist Party won.
In 1998, turn-out was 94% and the Nationalist Party won.
In 1996, turn-out was 95% and the Labour Party won.
In 2008, turn-out is 93% and we can’t draw any conclusions.

It doesn’t mean we’ll have a feathered prime minister. We might, but we have no way of knowing yet. So anyone who is putting up celebratory lorries and podiums is being more than a little premature and taking a big risk. Though commonsense tells us it can go only one way, lack of commonsense makes it possible that it will go the other way.

On another note, Jason the Peacock was nowhere to be seen yesterday – a little bit odd given that, as one of the few Labour figureheads who is not seeking election, he could appear on television on polling day but didn’t. It’s not like Jason to refuse the chance to be seen on camera. Rumours of an altercation in which he came out the worse for wear began flying around by the morning, but we have no reason to believe that they were anything other than rumours. Because violence is abhorrent, we sincerely hope the rumours were just that.

15 Comments Comment

  1. worried says:

    am i the only one who can’t sleep??

    [Moderator – No.]

  2. worried says:

    good :) .. daph..need some encouriging words……………..or an upper :)

  3. matthew says:

    I think the main thing now is to not take it TOO badly if Labour win. They are going to get into power sooner or later, after all. It is unrealistic to think otherwise. Actually the 1996-1998 years were quite entertaining to live through, if nothing else!

    Let`s face it though, as bad as Sant would be as Prime Minister, there is no way he can quite as comically shambolic as he was last time. It just isn`t humanly possible to recreate that level of monumental ineptitude. That has to have been a one-off gig.

    Having said all that, as we speak, there is nothing to suggest that Labour have won. The turnout didn`t exactly collapse. It was just a BIT lower than usual.

  4. K Zammit says:

    Daphne, thanks for trying to keep us optimistic but I am giving up now. My wife keeps on bugging me to switch off everthing and get some sleep, but how can I? Pinch me please this must be a nightmare. Look at that sh**** smile on the faces of Super One journalists! By the way is the moderator back from voting JPO.

    Another thing – remember the cheap propaganda they were pulling on super one re MEPA and MTA. Apparently BA has not chickened out again in front of DR. Sant. They actually stopped that news from being aired any further. Read the english indian site to find out.

    [Moderator – I am, thanks for reminding me to remove the message.]

  5. john says:

    The worst thing that if Labour win, we get Sant for another5-10 yrs. If they loose we get rid of him for ever.
    He is the worst thing that has ever happened to Malta.
    I don’t mind a Labour Govt. Let’s face it they have €800 mill coming in. Not even I can Screw that up.
    But I can’t Face seeing AF anymore. It will be embarassing to call him our leader….

  6. john says:

    I meant A.S (Didn’t get much sleep)

  7. me says:

    06:30 – Good morning everybody. Sorry Mod…I went to sleep a bit early. It isn’t my idea of fun watching boxes being trundled about. After all the chickens inside might get hurt.
    Let’s jot sum numbers with the ‘hypothesis’ that:
    1..All uncollected votes are PN
    2..Small parties have made minor gains.

    Last election – MLP: 133167 – PN: 145987
    Assuming that all uncollected votes are PN that reflects:
    MLP: 133167 – PN: 142337
    Assuming that the the 2.5% is reflected in the new voters:
    17000-2.5% = 16575 new voters.

    Divide new voters by 2 and add difference to MLP=
    MLP: 141879 – PN: 150199 = MLP: 48.57% – PN: 51.42%

    Let’s do it another way: Assuming that the small parties have gained 1.50% and they are all ex-PN:

    Total votes: 292000(Approx)
    Small parties: 5840 votes = 2.00% (No seat in parliament)
    MLP: 141454 = 48.40%
    PN: 144784 = 49.58%
    Relative majority…………

    Now where would I recon has gone much of the new vote..

    Hope and perseverance are the parents of all virtues.

  8. DaVe says:

    I guess if voters from my district(Sliema) and Gozo didint turnout, Its definitly bad news.

  9. Jenny says:

    Hi Daphne, that these blogs really bothered our Super One commentators (Dalli & Debono) poor things particularly the couple of days before the elections. There must be something that can be done to control this they are saying. In their words ‘it is not right’ even though it’s not easy!!! No Comment!!!

  10. Christian says:

    You could be right in saying that the lower than usual turnout does not indicate a victory for the lions of change. Still when you notice which districts had the sharpest fall, you cannot but worry and feel sorry for Gonzi as he definitely does not deserve losing to Fredu. This proves that common sense is not so common after all!

  11. Paul Spiteri says:

    Could it be that the lower turn out in Gozo is attributed to Maltese who have their vote in Gozo? Let’s face it most of them are from the Sliema district.

  12. Graham Crocker says:

    I’m starting to think, we should have voted for a coalition government.
    At least coalitions don’t last more than 1 or 2 years and we’d be safe either way.

    Now it looks like its either or, for 5 years.

    Correct me if I’m wrong.

  13. D. Muscat says:

    Graham, you are wrong. Reason is simple, 1 + 1 = 2 …and not 3.

  14. Corinne Vella says:

    I’m running out of chicken jokes. If there are any more out there please send them in.

  15. CD says:

    Why did the chicken cross the road ?
    It was spooked by a Referedum

    Why did the chicken cross the road ?
    Because Michael Falzon started singing !

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