Unpredictable battle for Benghazi
TIME AND TACTICS WILL DETERMINE UNPREDICTABLE BATTLE FOR BENGHAZI
Analysis/Tom Coghlan/March 17
The battle for Benghazi is expected to begin in five to ten days as Libyan government forces press farther east against poorly organised rebel resistance.
Some Western military analysts argue that the outcome is less clear-cut than is suggested by the recent advances of government forces, or claims by Saif Al-Islam Gaddafi, who said yesterday that it would be over in 48 hours.
Analysts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies believe that the developing civil war comes down to a battle for time. If Colonel Gaddafi’s forces can seized Benghazi with a swift assault, the only alternative for the rebels would be to switch to guerrilla warfare and terrorism or surrender.
If the rebels are able to organise a defence of the city, then the balance of power could begin to shift. A siege costly in civilian life would raise pressure on the international community to intervene.
However, Antony Beevor, the military historian and author of Stalingrad, said: “It’s obvious that the rebels have entirely lost momentum and probably morale. The rebels have a few anti-tank weapons but whether they have got the cohesion to fight off a serious strike into the town, nobody can really predict. Without outside help I don’t see how they can progress much more.”
Colonel Gaddafi’s forces have a decisive advantage in their use of tanks and artillery, which are easily deployed in the desert and against small towns.
But in a city such as Benghazi, tanks and artillery are more evenly balanced against determined defenders who can block entry routes. Rocket-propelled grenades can pick off lumbering tanks from above or mine the roads.
The international community could alter the balance of the battle towards the rebels in several ways. A no-fly zone over the country would require several hundred aircraft. However, a more limited no-fly zone over Benghazi could be achieved with a few dozen aircraft.
Another limited intervention could be a naval blockade to prevent the regime from bombarding Benghazi from the sea.
9 Comments Comment
Reply to H.P. Baxxter Click here to cancel reply
48 hours and it will be over bar the shouting.
[Daphne – That’s because, as I told you yesterday, you think of this in terms of a game or a competition. But it is not. It cannot be over in 48 hours, because the consequences of whatever happens to Benghazi will be prolonged for months and years. There was a discussion about this on CNN last night with an international relations expert from the London School of Economics. He dismissed Saif Gaddafi’s claims as clownish. Shame you missed it. You were probably reading Malta Today at the time.]
I hope that when your prediction fails to materialise, you will post an apology comment.
I followed that interview. Indeed he called him a clown in no uncertain terms.
That being so, KMB must be crapping his pants. So are Gowzef, Vella, AST, Sammut, et al.
Here comes another telethon for funds on Super One.
http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20110317/local/libya-threatens-air-sea-traffic-in-case-of-attack
No-fly zone is out of the question.
There are two options left for the EU to take and I suggest they do not choose to “sit this one out”.
Gaddafi has now threatened to target all air and sea traffic in the Mediterranean in the event of foreign military intervention.
Assuming he’d have any missiles left, maybe we could wave a copy of our constitution if we see any heading in our direction. The neutrality clause is bomb-proof.
There’s always room for frivolity. Perhaps ‘Reuben Sachs’ will enjoy this. The more serious stuff is beyond him.
http://blogs.reuters.com/oddly-enough/2011/03/16/divan-intervention-in-libya/
There’s a lot of truth in that. When the top brass put up tacky stuff everywhere, convinced that it’s hot shit, you know there’s something wrong in the country.
I mean, just look at ‘Gensna’ for crissakes.
Are you all volunteering?
No, of course not.
[Daphne – At 46, Reuben, no army will take me. But I have volunteered for the Red Cross. And you? Oh, and do please stop changing your name – Mario Farrugia, Mario Borg, Joe Abela and now Reuben Sachs. Do you think I can’t tell?]