Where is the Libyan military?
Saif Al Islam Gaddafi hands out weapons to loyalists
There’s something odd about the Gaddafi family’s defence of Tripoli. You’d think that with all that military might at their disposal, they wouldn’t have to resort to mercenaries and a haphazard assortment of Gaddafi loyalists armed on an ad hoc basis.
But that is all reporters seem to have seen, other than soldiers from the brigade led by Gaddafi’s son Khamis, on their closely supervised trips in and out of the city: armed gangs backed up by tanks.
So where are the army and the air force? Two fighter pilots defected to Malta rather than bomb their own people.
But Libya doesn’t have just two fighter pilots: it has more than 400 jets and the personnel to man them. So one assumes that if two refused to bomb Benghazi than others would have been found to do it instead.
But they haven’t – at least as far as we know. So they were either not ordered to do it, or they were and refused. But in the military you cannot refuse orders – no, not even in civilised parts of the world – so the question we should be asking (and we shall probably find out eventually) is: where are all those pilots?
Yesterday we saw footage of Saif Al Islam, associate of Peter Mandelson and Nat Rothschild, poster boy for reform and darling of Europeans who cannot resist a spot of dark glamour in their otherwise anodyne lives, standing on what looked like the back of a pick-up truck, waving a submachine gun around and yelling to the crush of men who surrounded him that they have to arm themselves, and look, here are some guns.
I will leave now, he told them, and I will return later with more.
Well, that has shattered his image once and for all, hasn’t it. While he spoke and grinned on camera to a reporter from CNN Turk and then to star Christiane Amanpour, we could almost dismiss him as a total buffoon, cut off from reality.
Now we can see that he is not cut off from reality at all, but merely exists in the separate reality called Libya. He knows what is going on outside. And he doesn’t care.
That’s it: they don’t care. All of Gaddafi’s children bar the eldest were born after their father become despot of Libya. They were raised in absolute power, privilege and unlimited wealth which they did not have to earn. In the 21st century, we have no parallels to draw. To help us understand, we have to go back to the royal families of the richest states of pre-Enlightenment Europe.
When Christiane Amanpour asked Saadi Gaddafi for his reactions to the imposition of sanctions on his family, his response was “Hire a lawyer”. When he saw her quizzical expression, he explained further: “I have very few hobbies. I no longer play football, but I like to go on safari. There is no safari in Libya so I have to travel out of Libya to do it.”
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Recruiting on top of a van….
I came across this link on http://www.libyafeb17.com:
https://spreadsheets4.google.com/a/guardian.co.uk/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0AtXDTAZmqxlcdEo4OWxQeWNyUnZDcGlYQlpRYWlwQ1E&single=true&gid=0&output=html&ndplr=1
[Daphne – I just wish they wouldn’t use the word ‘martyr’.]
Read in The Times that Gaddafi “granted” an interview with the BBC and ABC telebvision and The Times (London).
The BBC chap said that the interview had taken place in a restaurant in Tripoli. and Gaddafi seemed relaxed throughout. This is very interesting – if true. Since when has Gaddafi gone to restaurants without his female guards? Since when has Gaddafi gained a relaxed and laughing attitude? I wonder whether these newsmen were really speaking to Gaddafi or to one of his numerous “doubles”.
[Daphne – It was him, with a very definite face lift as the jowls have gone completely though his neck remains collapsed – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12603086 You have to watch it. ]
Yes, he appeared relaxed.
I wonder how many cups of Nescafe he drank before the interview.
And I wonder what was in his Nescafe.
“Tuesday, 1st March 2011 – 12:26CET
Pre-revolution flag raised on Libyan embassy
The pre-Gaddafi Libyan flag has been hoisted on the flagpole of the Libyan embassy amid cheering by Libyan anti-government protesters in Attard.
The ambassador said he would stay on and he accepted any flag which represented the Libyan people.
Protesters first met the ambassador and draped the flag on the embassy balcony before raising it on the flagpole replacing the all-green Libyan flag.” http://www.timesofmalta.com
In my view Gaddafi’s sons are the only hope that the situation does not end up being a bloody and long-lasting all out civil war.
Let’s look at the possible outcomes.
1. Protests within Tripoli force Gaddafi to resign/flee. This is very unlikely firstly because of the extreme violent reaction by Gaddafi’s special forces to any sign of protest and secondly because Gaddafi appears to still have some popular support in the city.
2. The eastern rebels assault Tripoli and defeat him. This is not a realistic option. The rebels are not organised, are poorly armed and are exposed to air attacks. The journey from Benghazi to Tripoli is 1,000 km and half way there is Gaddafi’s birth city and loyal stronghold, Sirte.
3. Foreign intervention. Again unlikely as neither the Libyans want it, nor do the US or the UK for obvious reasons (just think Iraq and Afghanistan).
All the above scenarios can end with the death of Gaddafi, and mad as he is he probably prefers to die than flee. His sons are likley to think differently. They are saner and are not very willing to “martyr” themselves to what clearly is a lost cause in the long term. They are also used to a luxurious lifestyle and if they can find a way of exchanging their hold on Libya for a guaranteed comfortable exile, they may be willing to do it. In the ABC TV interview Saadi appeared to care more about his safari than staying in command of Libya.
There is also the scenario that many are dismissing but that may still be possible. It is not beyond Gaddafi to launch a counter offensive and re-take the country. Reports that mercenaries are still being flown into Tripoli appear every day (although there is no way in knowing how accurate they are). His special forces appear to be intact and still loyal and it seems he can also make use of mercenary pilots to fly his air force.
It is far from over for Gaddafi and there is still a lot that can happen.
The only other comparison is Kim il Sung of North Korea (another friend of Labour). He was raised as a spoilt brat, in a parallel world to the people of North Korea.
He does not know the meaning of consequences; that is why he does not hesitate to bomb South Korea and kidnap Japanese citizens from their own land.
Iranian, and other military dictators are tyrant but they are aware of all consequences of their actions. However, having a spolit brat brat as the leader is a completely different matter.
Burma, Saudi Arabia, Turkmenistan, Iran …
then there are the children of the super-rich anywhere in the world. It was entertaining to watch the fall of Mr Guttenberg today. He handled it with grace. That much must be acknowledged.
[Daphne – The children of the super-rich do not have parents who control states or kingdoms, unless they are the children of the Sultan of Brunei or of Saudi Arabia.]
God bless the BBC and Christiane Amanpour – you should all watch this brilliant interview:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12607478
Incidentally, he really does appear to have had a facelift (something else he has in common with Berlusconi) and it is interesting to see that he understands and speaks English, so all that posturing with interpreters was to irritate the hell out of everyone and make a point.
He went to Sandhurst
Also gave him time to think up yet another of his non-commital replies to questions.
[Daphne – Yes, and as for speaking in Arabic in international forums, I tend to think it’s the equivalent of our own politicians insisting on speaking Maltese, with simultaneous interpretation, in Brussels, when they all speak pretty good English and should do so.]
I still cannot understand why our Prime Minister spoke in Maltese during the international press conference, and then gave a brief update in English. Unfortunately, I feel that much of his perfect speech was lost in the brief translation. I was expecting Lou Bondi to ask him about it yesterday.
It’s common courtesy to reply to a question in the language in which it is put.
It is bad manners to ask a question in Maltese when you are perfectly capable of using English so that everyone else can understand what you are saying.
This was an international press conference, so it follows that an international language should have been used. The Spanish, German and French journalists all spoke in English. The Maltese journalists could have done so too.
To his credit, Keith Demicoli pointed that out, and asked the question in English.
Keith Demicoli also told the BBC that Malta is unlikely to grant asylum to the Libyan pilots who landed here, because of its commercial interests in Libya.
And now there’s an international petition clamouring for President Abela to grant asylum.
The two events may be unconnected, but you can see where rash action leads. The petition effectively calls for Malta to disregard the laws, structures and protocols that safeguard the institution of political asylum. The very opposite, in other words, of what the petitioners hope to achieve.
http://daphnebarak.homestead.com/MoammarQaddafi.html
Daphne Barak interviewed Qaddafi in 1999.
The most memorable moment was when she asked him:
DB:“So… when are you going to quit and leave the stage for someone else?
Qaddafi’s interpreter was so shaky that he couldn’t translate it. Daphne repeated the question.
DB: So… when are you going to quit and leave the stage for someone else?
Still – no translation.
Then – Daphne suggested that she could ask the same question in Arabic, not only in English. The translator turned white.
At that moment, Qaddafi who claims that he does not speak English, became extremely helpful.
“It is not about me quitting” he responded to Daphne’s question without any proper translation, “after all – I am the head of a revolution…”
There was something strange about the voice. I doubt if Christiane Amanpour interviewed the real Gaddafi.
We should ask AST to check about the voice. He must have met the real Gaddafi.
Il-veru he speaks English! Mela ghax tghallem erba’ kelmiet jitkellem bl-Ingliz?
Did you read what he did at the UN in 2009?
He took with him his own interpreters, with the excuse that he was going to speak a dialect which the UN interpreters did not understand.
He must have reasoned that nothing gets lost in the translation – he did not trust the UN translators.
But then, he took the risk that he could not blame the UN for doing the wrong translation.
Later, UN Arab interpreters said he was speaking normal Arabic.
Gaddafi was part of the military that overthrew the King. He knows the dangers. So he intentionally kept the military weak.
And as can now be clearly seen, he did not allow the existence of any organised opposition. Except for Al Qaida, of course.
What do you expect. He was trained by the British at the Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst.
What do you mean “What do you expect”? are you implying that Sandhurst turns out militarily incompetent dictators? Should we deduce, then, that Oxford turns out evil despots?
[Daphne – Calm yourself. It was a response to my reference to his knowledge of English.]
Sorry.
I felt so very sad the other day watching Amanpour’s interview with the two Gadaffi children. The both seem to be fatefully caught between the proverbial rock and the hard place.
Here are two adults who have been utterly spoilt by the power and wealth for which they never had to work. Listening to them speak they do not give one the impression they have really been seriously prepared to shoulder the responsibility that should really come with their privileges.
I am very surprised listening to Saif al Islam speaking. I cannot believe this man has actually obtained a doctorate from LSE. He can hardly string a group of words together into a sentence. As for his vision of Libya’s future we better not even go there.
As for poor Saadi, he sounds more like the ‘puer aeternus” of mythology. His emotional life must have really stopped at the adolescent level. He seems to be living a very provisional life with not much responsibility.
He appears to be facing now the situation which must have haunted him all his life. He speaks of an unstoppable earthquake or fever that is now gripping Libya like a vice. His smile changes into sadness and fear. Than he thinks of his safari. How is he going to go on safari ? It is the only thing he likes to do.
I actually felt sorry for Saadi.
Saadi gunned down people in a stadium. What’s to feel sorry for?
In an ordinary life, Saadi would not have been able to go on safari and Saif would not have been able to commission Monitor group to do his research. It’s doubtful he’d have got into the LSE at all.
When Saif Gaddafi began a public lecture at the LSE with the words “in theory, Libya is a democracy, in theory” he laughed along with his audience, yet he exploited that system to his own advantage as he continues to do even now.
Neither of them show recognition of – much less remorse for – all the lives ruined by father’s insanity..
They are not torn between a rock and a hard place.
They are torn between having their cake and eating it.
Saadi sounded more detached from reality than his father and Saif put together. He sounded like a spoiled brat.
I think that he, and his family, will soon have to “hire a lawyer,” when they are dragged into the nearest chamber of the International Court of Justice to face accusations of human genocide.
I read some articles about Aisha the only daughter of Ghaddafi and I had the impression that she has taken her life quite seriously compared to her brothers.
Maybe the fact that she is a woman and the only daughter in the clan Ghaddafi, she wanted to prove herself.
Can H.P. Baxxter please enlighten us about Gaddafi’s military might?
I’ll have to do some research, but just off the cuff, here’s the summary:
The armed forces consist of the Army, Navy and Air Force. This does not include the People’s Militia, the Pan-African Legion, or the Islamic Arab Legion (about which we have no details). Libyan special forces, including 32 Brigade assigned to Gaddafi’s protection, are nominally part of the army.* Total strength is about 120 000. There is no defence ministry, and all armed forces are under the direct control of Il-Leader.
Most of the equipment is of Soviet manufacture, and in bad shape due to various wars, sanctions, sales to neighbouring countries etc.
The People’s Militia (direct translation of “Id-Dejma”. Ring any bells?) is a sort of organised local territorial defence force. Its strength is about 40 000.
The Pan-African Legion is about 7000 strong, made up of volunteers from Sudan, Egypt, Tunisia, Mali, and Chad (Gaddafi was fomenting rebellion in all of these). Due to their loyalty to the regime, they are armed with some of the most modern weapons, and alongside 32 Brigade, are the most combat-capable forces in Libya.
So, in a nutshell, think of Saddam’s Iraqi forces, and divide their capabilities by three.
*They are élite, but certainly not ‘special forces’ in the NATO meaning, just like our C Company are not special forces.
Thanks Baxxter, I knew we could rely on you.
Uninstalling dictators…
http://imgur.com/gallery/HFFd1
I watched the bizarre interview on BBC twice this morning and somehow got the strangest feeling that Gaddafi honestly believes that the demonstrations in the streets are just people showing support for his regime.
His surprised reaction to the BBC correspondent’s claims that people were ripping his posters and carrying the old Libyan flag to me seemed genuine. Either that, or he is an extremely good actor.
I wonder if he is being fed false information by the people around him, and that it is not him at all who is calling the shots. If this is not the case, then this man is in a worse mental state than previously believed.
He went on to say that ‘foreigners’ and ‘Al Qaeda’ were training young Libyans and inciting the violence in Benghazi.
I laughed when I first heard his son say this in a TV interview a few days ago, but started to have my doubts after I saw an Italian TV crew on RAI TG1 last night (8.00pm news) being led into a military compound in Benghazi which had fallen to the anti regime protesters.
The main gate was opened by heavily armed men, and inside the compound they bumped into a man wearing a Chitrali (traditional Afghan or Pakistani hat ) who was instructing some young Libyans on how to use various military equipment.
The Rai reporter was taken by surprise and said that the man was probably Afghan (definitely not Libyan) and that there were also other western European men, probably mercenaries, who became very agitated and insisted that they were not to be shown on camera.
The plot thickens. I think there is more to this story than meets the eye.
@Corinne Vella
Hearing Saif speak one suspects that he is not quite a doctorate level individual.
Right now there are accusations that he used a ghost writer to write his PhD thesis and plagiarised parts thereof.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-12608869
It’s not news to me. I’m surprised it’s news to anyone at all.
And by that I don’t mean the BBC report itself, but the fact that Saif is, was, or ever will be anything other than his father’s voice, in which case he had no place ‘earning’ a doctorate in governance and democracy.
That he apparently lacks the requisite intelligence and skill is a secondary consideration. An intelligent dictator is no better that an unintelligent one. He may even be more dangerous.
The embarrassment is on the LSE who awarded the PhD in the first place if it can be proved that Saif plagiarised his thesis or that he used a ghost writer.
The LSE is in an embarrassing position because it accepted Saif al-Islam al Gaddafi in the first place and then went on to accept ill-gotten money.
Discovering plagiarism is a minor embarassment in comparison to training a dictator.
Daphne, answers to some of your questions may be found on Aljazeera’s web site in an interview given by Abdel Fattah Younes, the former interior minister and head of Special Forces in Libya who defected to the anti-Gaddafi side.
I’m watching Saif Al-Islam interviewed on Sky News. Somehow he looks different I would dare say reasonable and sincere.
Am I losing it or what? Any one else watching the interview – what do you think.
I don’t actually believe him but unlike previous interviews I think he would seem credible to someone who has no idea what is going on.
[Daphne – Psychopaths are often like that. I know at least two. Incredibly charming and convincing, ever so personable, seemed ever so sincere, and both ended up in jail for heinous crimes.]
He doesn’t look reasonable and sincere. He looks shifty and nervous, all nervous ticks, studied poses, and fidgety behaviour.
Nothing, in fact, like he was when he was the world’s media darling – or as close as you can get to being one when you’re the deluded dictator’s heir apparent.
There was another episode with Mariah Carey not only with Beyonce’. ( U l-poplu jghum fil-hama).
Also with Nelly Furtado, who at least donated her proceeds for the concert back to the Libyan people.
Saif also said that they were not a rich family and that freezing their assets is not going to have any effect. And then we hear about all these companies and millions.