The professor on TVM

Published: March 9, 2008 at 3:15am

Professor Edward Scicluna has just been speaking on TVM. This is the gist of what he said:

  • the lowest voter turn-out was in traditional PN strongholds
  • we cannot conclude that these were PN votes only (this because Labour voters live in PN strongholds too, obviously)
  • even if they were all PN votes that ‘didn’t turn up to vote’, the knock is still not enough to erase the advantage that the PN had over Labour in the days running up to the election
  • however, this trend of not turning up to vote may also be reflected in a similar trend of people turning up to vote against the government
  • but then again, it might not – because none of us are prophets and we won’t know until the votes are counted

59 Comments Comment

  1. K Zammit says:

    Why did the chicken cross the road?
    I checked the papers and it wasn’t the Chicken – It was Charlon Gouder who sent her to enquire about the price of the chick (with the short skirt)on the other side of the road.

  2. worried says:

    this is absolutely ridiculous! it shouldn’t be so close..look at the manifestos..for god’s sake, even if you’d like to be shallow look at them at face value, it should be won hands could people be so blind??

  3. Yanno says:

    Why did the chicken cross the road?
    oooohhhh! you can’t say.Some time chicken ibawzru naqra l-hemm u ibawzru naqra l-hawn.MHux xorta.

  4. D. Muscat says:

    Don’t give too much importance to voter tournouts unless the differences are very high (something like 10% …which is not the case). Moreover, the Northern localities despite having a Nationalist majority have also a consistent strong labour base. For example Rabat, Mosta and Mellieha have a Labour majority in local councils.

    Conclusion: despite that the drop was registered mostly in traditionally Nationalist areas, it is not that worrysome in my opinion.

  5. R Borg says:

    It is all true what Profs Scicluna said that we are no prophets
    Some people tend to quote Profs Scicluna when it is convenient to them.
    3% of the voters together with the 5600 votes not collected can make the difference.
    We are only hours away from what Malta needs. Up to now I am still holding
    My feet on the ground. Even tough the wind for change is felt and needed.
    I would augur all Maltese to be Maltese what ever the color of victory is.
    As from tomorrow Blue or Red have to work very hard to make our country
    A better state in EU.

  6. Mario Debono says:

    Why did the cicken cross the road?

    Because it has a “pjan serju” to do so according to the “pjan serju ghal bidu gdid u gud guvernans”.

  7. Mario Debono says:

    Seriously now, have spent the night doing my sums. I am no graduate in Maths but i do know my elections. If those zaghzagh votes do not come in on our side, our goose, as they say, is cooked.

  8. Carmel Scicluna says:

    Mulej harsina. Mulej ismaghna. Fil-gallinar tas-sriedaq. Tergax titfaghna!

  9. Gordon says:

    The TOM website is reporting that a MaltaToday exit poll has shown that Robert Arrigo topped the PN vote in the Sliema district. Does anyone know what else it showed?

  10. Victor's nephew says:

    Why did the chicken cross the road?

    Because Daphne’s son told it to F@*% Off

  11. s1 says:

    posted on Malta Today website at 0330: Exit polls carried out by MT in the 10 district reveal that Robert Arrigo is the PN’s preferred candidate. But the poll also indicates a surprise showing for John Dalli, who turns out to be third most preferred PN candidate. Details of the exit poll are published in today’s edition of MT.

  12. kevin says:

    anyone here? i guess you’re still all asleep. ive been following all media till late and apart from the low turout there are hardlt any newsworthy item in circulation. the low turnout in pn districts was anticipated despite gonzi’s presence in the sliema ballot, furthermore, his presece in the 2nd district would serve to destanilise the an leader’s grip as well as take a bite from mlp. this factor alone would compensate for some losses, so lets not loose hope. the matter is not i anyone’s hands any more, and we would be foolish to draw any conclusions at this stage.

  13. Lorna says:

    Good morning Daphne and everybody reading this site.

    Not to be a wet blanket or anything, but I’ve rather given up hope. Last note I managed to sleep but very disturbedly (I don’t know whether the word exists at all). I dreamt of torches and celebrating labour supporting and Sant taking the oath and refusing to kiss the cross.

    Strangly, though, even Laborite strongholds have had a decline in turnout. I can’t imagine a Nationalist in Paola who wouldn’t vote. We’ll see.

  14. bob says:

    Imagine we have to match a laugh to some of our MLP friends. It May go like this:-
    AS: TEE HEE TEE HEE (biss)
    Falz On: Ror Ror Ror
    Mangi ON: DNAHA HA HA
    Ray Wotsit: AH AH AH
    Charlaton Gouder: Hor Hor Hor

  15. Genome says:

    Why all this pessimism … it doesn’t take a Professor of sums to make these conclusions. For those who imagine that a poor turnout means disillusioned Blues (than you to those pathetic Hon. Ministers)who stayed at home: these probably are middle aged folk and are more than equally balanced by the army of Gonzi youth (hamalli), new to the polls.
    Were I inclined to Red, I’d be equally disillusioned by the poor show of the Chicken campaign and rather stay at home than cross the road in pouring rain. Ducks had a better deal!
    At the end of the day ONLY the FINAL count will be conclusive. It will reflect the IQ of our “Smart Island”.
    So please concentrate on your Sunday lunch and keep a few bottles chilled :) Either way it is time to celebrate. My five eurocents … “Peace be with you all!”

  16. swieqi resident says:

    What a shame, Sliema residents should be bombed! I expected the hunters to think and reason like “chickens” but the Sliema residents who think they are God’s gift to intelligence have proved themselves to be worse than hunters ! ! ! enjoy dear residents, your disaster is yet to begin ! look out of your windows today and enjoy the sound of horns, blarring music (the only way is up) and red flags.

  17. me says:

    06:30 – Good morning everybody. Sorry Mod…I went to sleep a bit early. It isn’t my idea of fun watching boxes being trundled about. After all the chickens inside might get hurt.
    Let’s jot sum numbers with the ‘hypothesis’ that:
    1..All uncollected votes are PN
    2..Small parties have made minor gains.

    Last election – MLP: 133167 – PN: 145987
    Assuming that all uncollected votes are PN that reflects:
    MLP: 133167 – PN: 142337
    Assuming that the the 2.5% is reflected in the new voters:
    17000-2.5% = 16575 new voters.

    Divide new voters by 2 and add difference to MLP=
    MLP: 141879 – PN: 150199 = MLP: 48.57% – PN: 51.42%

    Let’s do it another way: Assuming that the small parties have gained 1.50% and they are all ex-PN:

    Total votes: 292000(Approx)
    Small parties: 5840 votes = 2.00% (No seat in parliament)
    MLP: 141454 = 48.40%
    PN: 144784 = 49.58%
    Relative majority…………

    Now where would I recon has gone much of the new vote..

    Hope and perseverance are the parents of all virtues.

  18. me says:

    Daphne, Before euphoria hits the streets, I have to thank you for opening your ‘web-home’ to all.
    Mod., in my humble opinion, you did a very good job of handing out ‘food for thought’ and ‘refreshments’.
    I was disgusted at the way some of the visitors you invited into your ‘home’ had the cheek, and did their best, to spill ‘refreshments’ you handed out on the ‘carpets’ and damage the ‘furniture’ you made available to everyone.
    I also thank the majority of your visitors for the way they opened up a window into their heads and hearths, showing their hopes, fears, anxiety and reflections.
    Well done everybody. I am sure this is just the beginning……………

    [Moderator – Thank you, me.]

  19. moon says:

    I wish I could share the optimism of some of you. I’m already feeling dejected looking at the low turnout of ‘nationalist’ districts.

  20. armageddon says:

    guys, let’s be realistic…IT DOESN’T LOOK GOOD! AT ALL! have you seen torca’s exit poll? It seems we’re in for a big surprise!

  21. Jimmy says:

    My calculations:

    MLP 51% (give or take a few percentage points)
    PN 46% (give or take a few percentage points)
    AD + AN 3% (give or take a few percentage points)

    any thoughts ?

    [Moderator – ‘Jimmy’ is an elve (sic) who previously posted under the name ‘Jonathan’.]

  22. s1 says:

    Yes I have – what do you think the 10.71% attributed as N/A refer to? How irresponsible!

  23. Lorna says:

    Seems like 10:30 will be Hour Zero :) A ray of hope is still shining in my tired heart :) Even though, I have to say, it’s cloudy in there.

  24. me says:

    Let’s do some more numbers: Malta today exit poll:

    2008 2003
    Arrigo R. 15.90% 9.07% + 6.83%
    Pullicino G. 13.50% 13.10% + 0.40%
    Dalli G. 0.00% 11.10% + 11.10%
    Zammit Dimech F. 8.90% 10.57% – 1.67%
    Frendo M. 8.20% 7.06% + 1.14%

    Falzon M. 0.00% 11.60% +11.60%
    Bartolo E. 10.30% 5.30% – 5.00%

    Vassallo H 3.40% 1.21% +2.19%

    Still 22.10% have not given there poll.
    Where can one place this figure. PN or MLP

    Translating 2.19% (AD) on all districts = around 7000 votes = No seat

  25. me says:

    Better tabulation:
    Let’s do some more numbers: Malta today exit poll:

    2008 2003
    Arrigo R.___________5.90% ____________9.07%_______+ 6.83%
    Pullicino G.________13.50%____________13.10%______ + 0.40%
    Dalli G.____________0.00%____________11.10%______+ 11.10%
    Zammit Dimech F.____8.90%___________10.57%______ – 1.67%
    Frendo M.___________8.20%_____________7.06%______+ 1.14%

    Falzon M.____________0.00%___________11.60%_____+11.60%
    Bartolo E.____________10.30%___________5.30%______- 5.00%

    Vassallo H____________3.40%____________1.21%________+2.19%

    Still 22.10% have not given there poll.
    Where can one place this figure. PN or MLP

    Translating 2.19% (AD) on all districts = around 7000 votes = No seat

  26. K Zammit says:

    Now where is Victor Lavrenti Beria (exclude the pun)the spokesman for the glasshouse (jew gallinar) when we need some news?

  27. Jimmy says:

    actually im his brother james but anyway lol…found his pc open on this blog n been reading 4 tha past 2 hours. The obvious partisan perspective aside , gd stuff. encourages gd discussion (not the chicken thing n the corruption crap)

    [Moderator – Thank you for the explanation, and my apologies.]

  28. M Debono says:

    Huduha ma saqajkom tal-pepe. “its fashionable to vote AD”…….fottejtu lil Malta. U just cant trust the supposedly intelligent middle class anymore can u ? U dan hargilkom Gonzi biex itikom kuragg. Thank you. In my opinion you have done more harm to Malta than the hunters ever did. Now u will see the real rape of Sliema like never before. Thank you.

  29. D. Muscat says:

    My predictions:
    PN = 49.5%
    MLP = 49.1%
    The Rest = 1.4%

  30. me says:

    My honest to God, cross my hearth and hope to die, last weeks (before the ‘Harry’ thing) projection: PN win by 6000 (+/-500).
    Looks a more likely 3000/4000 win.

  31. s1 says:

    MLP Candidate (i think his name is Joe Sammut) just said “jidher li ninsabu fuq l-ghatba tac-celebrazzjoni”

  32. A Cardona says:

    come on guys…i’m afraid it’s over. Hunters in the north and the Sliema crowd have done us in. There is no hope with that kind of turnout.

  33. laura v says:

    Did I hear a Murtal coming from St Julians area?

  34. Pissed off big time says:

    Second murtal from St.Julians

  35. me says:

    Let’s put it this way boys and girls. MLP have nothing to loose, so for them it is a win/win situation. Even if they loose the have not lost anything because they are already losers.
    On the other hand have a lot to loose. And there the story takes a pause because now we need facts and facts alone can be final.

  36. me says:

    Let’s put it this way boys and girls. MLP have nothing to loose, so for them it is a win/win situation. Even if they loose the have not lost anything because they are already losers.
    On the other hand PN have a lot to loose. And there the story takes a pause because now we need facts and facts alone can be final.

  37. Ray Bartolo says:

    I will keep on dreaming, either for the next 15 minutes (time 10:45AM) or for the next 5 years (or so)…

  38. Victor's nephew says:

    Kuragg… Joe Saliba is smiling…

  39. TheReasonWhy says:

    I think that if the PN loses it is because of disgruntled PN ex-supporters. The existence of these type of people can only be blamed on Gonzi because he ignored their opinions – didn’t he notice that the 1000-strong crowd protesting in Valletta during a heatwave was mostly made up of PN supporters? I’m referring to the protest against the extension of the ODZ. The exercise that was named “rationalisation of the ODZ.”

    It’s such a pity that Gonzi ignored the cry of his own crowd. I remember PN supporters holding banners like “Vote Pullicino, Get Caqnu”

    [Moderator – I have a sneaking suspicion that ‘Dumbledore’ and ‘TheReasonWhy’ are the same person. Have AD established their own grotto?]

  40. Fabianne says:

    the published segregation of the non-voters has sparked some hope in me…my mother recounted to me an election contest back in Borg Olivier days where the low turn-out signified trouble to the Nationalists’ performance..

  41. s1 says:

    Edward Scicluna on Super 1

  42. Anna Tabone says:

    deja vu…. net tv are not commenting at all same as what mlp did the last time….
    a flicker of hope dying

  43. K Zammit says:

    Please Daphne reassure me that those statistics you issued at 10:00 this am are referened and not just hearsay. Maybe my irritable bowel improves a bit.

    [Moderator – They are referenced. Both the Nationalist Party and the Labour Party know these figures. We will not be dealing in speculation where numbers are concerned.]

  44. me says:

    Where’s Jason?

  45. Sue says:

    Dear A. Cardona, Most unfair to blame Sliema crowd for low turnout. as far as i know the 10th district is not just the Sliema crowd. anyway, are you some kind of prophet saying it’s over? We’ll win, you’ll see…..:) The only way is up…theirs!! (stole your line, Peter!!)

  46. John Schembri says:

    On this and on another bog I am feeling like watching “Affari Tuuoi” or it’s a deal , the anonymous man gives the presenter a figure (STATISTICS) and we try guessing what’s inside the box , by elimination.We already have ‘opened’ some boxes, concluding that Ad would not make it. But everyone is hoping to spot the cash prize.

  47. Victor's nephew says:

    No one can spot the cash prize unless the 1’s are counted..

  48. me says:

    Well John Schembri….there is no other blog…this IS the blog.

  49. John Schembri says:

    Isma’ ghax ahjar inkun naf minn qabel ,u thawwadt ,veru li jekk P.E. il-partiti ma’ jgibux il-50+1 , allura in-number twos ta’ l-alternattiva ma jintirtux fuq partit biex jitla dak il-partit bis -sistema proporzjonali?

  50. Genome says:

    errata corrige to above entry under “Genome on Mar 9, 2008”:
    (than you to those pathetic Hon. Ministers) should have read (thank you to those pathetic Hon. Ministers)
    My apologies, about the “k” getting lost with all those chickens running amock! Better make a report to the traffic section of “Mr Paraventu” :)

  51. @john schembri

    Veru. Jekk l-AD u hadd miz-zghar ma jtella’ siggijiet jghoddi l-1s taz-zewg Partiti l-kbar.

  52. D. Muscat says:

    answer to john schembri, NO. More than this, your question is senseless.

  53. J.Mifsud says:

    Thanks. Do not know why? Was I offensive?

    Well thanks just the same.

    I will still follow most of your articles although I do not always agree with you 100%, but I always try to be as objective as possible.

  54. D. Muscat says:

    I cannot understand John Schembri’s question. However 50% or less, votes are always transferable if the numbers are written clear. So again the question is senseless.

  55. s1 says:

    He’s on Super 1

  56. Kathryn Z. says:

    I don’t know about the other localities but I can already hear the MLP “Forza Labour” chants. Goodness, let’s all hope for the best. Situation is killing us, but we are still with our hopes up.

  57. me says:

    I must be watching another Super One then….

    [Moderator – me, I saw him too.]

  58. Amanda Mallia says:

    After around 1 1/2 hours of festa-type “murtali”, we have now been spared any more. Am still keeping fingers crossed.

  59. Kathryn Z. says:

    Interrupting again! Murtali from qormi…Haven’t figured yet the meaning of all this..

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