Comment of the morning
Posted by Bubu on the subject of the gas container vessel which the company that struck a pre-electoral deal with the Labour Party (let’s call a spade a spade here) intends to moor at Marsaxlokk, with the full backing of a government that should be fighting not in the interests of the Labour Party’s business allies but in the interests of the public:
I have calculated that, in the event of a catastrophic failure with the containment, a rough estimate of the potential immediate blast radius would be approximately 3km.
That would effectively shut down most of the Maltese infrastructure when in comes to energy and industry. The infrastructure would be rewound back to what it was in post-war Malta.
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More people who are qualified to calculate the blast radius of that gas container vessel should speak out, and they should do it in their own name.
It is not only the loss of human life and personal property that we are talking about here: it is the wiping out of most of our infrastructure, which would cause the economy to grind to a halt and die overnight. If you think you are not at risk because you don’t live around there, you are badly mistaken. Your life might not be at risk, the physical structure of home might not be at risk, but everything else that makes your daily life and plans possible most definitely is.
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I would say 3km is a very, very mild estimate.
“If about 3 million gallons of LNG spills onto the water from an LNG tanker ship, flammable vapors from the spill could travel up to 3 miles.”
CRS Report for Congress, Jan 28, 2004
Now 3,000,000 gallons = 11,356 cubic metres. The ship at Marsaxlokk will be 145,000 cubic meters or 38,304,947.6 US gallons. That is over 12 times larger.
The accuracy of the results obtained from any calculation depends entirely on the accuracy of the data that you have to work with.
In this case the only data I had was an estimate based on the video that was doing viral rounds showing the explosion of an LNG truck in China, therefore I was purposely very conservative in my estimates.
Now with the figures you provided I would expect the radius to scale up to about 11km. I am understanding however, that the report you mention assumes vapour diffusion without ignition.
If the vapours are ignited as happened in the Chinese truck video we would expect to see a smaller radius but with more damage. That would actually match surprisingly well with my original calculation.
Agreed, it will go at most across the bay carried by surface current, and ignite at first contact.
Could be anything, faulty street lighting, mobile telephony transmitter, car engine.
It’s what happened in Viareggio, detonation calculated at ca. two minutes after the tank ruptured.
I think that the truck was transporting LPG. Watching the video is frighting and alarming to say the least however LNG reacts in a different manner.
I also read that the LNG land facilities are more vulnerable and prone to explode or get problems of some sort
I’m no expert and feel free to correct.
http://www.lngfacts.org/recent-news/liquefied-natural-gas-not-involved-in-chinese-truck-explosion/
Interesting, Valent, however the link you quoted doesn’t strike me as being particularly unbiased.
The write-up contains statements that, while true, are misleading.
1. At room temperature methane is lighter than air. But LNG, by definition is in the liquid state, not gaseous and at about -160 degrees celcius, not at room temperature. It is also stored at 10-20 bar of pressure (approx 20 atmospheres).
2. One need not have an explosion in order to cause havoc. Ignition is still a possibility. Take a look at this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-JZU7wSgl8
The rest of the article is blurb and spiel designed to reassure safety-obsessed US customers.
LNG is stored at about 4psi at -162C and not 20 psi. If it was stored at higher pressures, it would be a solid and extremely heavy to transport. I may be wrong, but it is what I was once told by an LNG engineer.
Valent, LPG is the type of gas we have in cylinders in our homes. I am not aware that if it is allowed to escape from the cylinder it will form a white vapour before it becomes explosive.
Besides, the report in your link quotes a Chinese newspaper as source.
Correction. I should have said ‘and not at 20 bar’.
LNG is not stored at twenty x atmospheric pressures.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/9594009/Tanker-explosion-kills-five-in-China.html
Good point Ciccio,
LPG mutates into a gas without going through the vapour state. Much more volatile.
What will probably happen is the E.U will threaten the government with action. Of course the PM will be defiant and say that they have no right to interfere with affairs that don’t concern them, and then at the last minute we will see a U-turn with the PM stating that he negotiated and won.
And Muscat will then probably say that because of his “victory” he is no longer bound by his rash promise to resign if the new power station is not commissioned and in operation by March 2015.
And, of course, everyone will be relieved and thankful and simply say that we have to move on and never mind the electoral promise.
Yes, he will first say “Noted, but not thanks.”
Then he will come up with a face saving solution which he will say was a “first” and “approved by the EU Commission.” He will keep the gas tanker in the middle of the Marsaxlokk Bay, but will relocate the power station and displace the residents around the bay to new social housing which he will build further away with the cash from Henley & Something’s Citizenship 4 Sale scheme.
Hadn’t our Prime Minister (then Leader of the Opposition) advised that we should emulate Cyprus?
Cyprus had failed to dispose of explosives and instead (irresponsibly) stored them (in the sun) for a couple of years or so at a Cypriot naval base, close to a power station supplying half of Cyprus’ population.
I believe we all remember what happened in 2011.
According to Credit Suisse, the economic impact of the explosion was estimated at €2.4billion (13.8% of the Cyprus GDP).
“Specialists reckon that a terrorist attack on a LNG tanker would have the force of a small nuclear explosion” Lord Levene, Chairman of Lloyd’s (2004)
Reported here: http://www2.energybulletin.net/node/2202
The full text of his speech is here:
http://www.lloyds.com/lloyds/press-centre/speeches-archive/2004/09/can_the_21st_century_corporation_remain_secure_lord_levene_chairman
To be even more precise the statement ‘If about 3 million gallons of LNG spills onto the water from an LNG tanker ship, flammable vapors from the spill could travel up to 3 miles.’ was also made by Professor Jerry Havens in August 16, 2005.
Jerry Havens is a chemical engineer and director of the Chemical Hazards Research Center at the University of Arkansas. He helped write federal standards for estimating the size and intensity of fires involving LNG)
The Cyprus explosion (although of a different nature) is a very clear example of how an economy can grind to a halt. In that case, the ‘only’ infrastructure to be affected was the power plant.
Yet colleagues there were always complaining how even months after the incident they were still experiencing regular (almost daily) power cuts which drove the economy’s productivity to the ground.
If the power station is badly damaged, the reverse osmosis plants cannot operate.
If the RO plants do not operate, there will not be a water supply.
In layman’s words, you will not have water to shower in the morning.
That will be the fault of most home-owners. The law stipulates that all new homes must have a cistern but many people do away with it altogether as a needless expense.
Unfortunately, MEPA does not enforce this law resulting in needless road flooding and a massive dependence on reverse osmosis.
That is not the point.
The point is that it is not just electricity supply which will be compromised but also water supply. An accident which damages the power station will be a double blow for ALL households and ALL businesses, not just those around Marsaxlokk.
Joseph Muscat said he wanted Malta to follow on the model of Cyprus. So far he has been doing just that.
First with the Citizenship 4 Sale and the impression he has given to the whole world that Malta is a bankrupt country, and now with the powerstation infrastructure project.
http://www.1010global.org/sites/default/files/uploads/ckfinder/images/pb-110711-cyprus-04_photoblog900.jpg
Incidentally Daphne, I have already been trying to bring the potential danger to people’s attention.
I have been finding that most people do not have an imagination fertile enough to actually understand the damage that would ensue in real terms. It’s like speaking to a brick wall, even with individuals who are politically active and who, one would think, would have reason to make good use of such information.
I despair sometimes.
[Daphne – Tell me about it. Maltese people appear to have a predominantly lowish IQ (there must be genetic reasons for that, as there are for the predominantly short limbs), and two of the major handicaps directly associated with, and deriving from, a lowish IQ are lack of curiosity and lack of imagination. I despair routinely. The trouble is that you find yourself adapting to fit and it really hits you how bad it is when you are in conversation with an ‘outsider’ and realise that there is no way you could be having this conversation with most of the Maltese people you know, including the ones who pass for intelligent and well-educated.]
I think it is be a combination of factors, chief among them education. IQ, while dependent on genetics, also responds to the right type of education. If the brain is not trained to think in the right way, the potential in the genes is not expressed in full.
It is one of the reasons I always advocate more emphasis on scientific subjects in schools, especially physics. I have been lucky in that I’ve always had good teachers in the subjects that count most.
I’ve also happened to make some, let us say, “unconventional” acquaintances along the way, who while on occasion have led me down what I later determined for myself were wrong paths, have also opened my mind to new perspectives.
Another telling factor in my opinion is also insularity. One gets used to only taking notice of one’s own little patch of grass, especially if it happens to be surrounded by sea. On the mainland one cannot help but form a wider appreciation of things.
I think it also has to do with the fact that most Maltese effectively live in an echo chamber, where the same ideas are recycled constantly and perception is peddled as fact.
I used to think it’s genetic. But my parents and relatives belong to the Other Malta so we have at least one counterexample.
I agree with Nik on this. The problem stems from the approach to ‘education’ delivered at the University of Malta.
Academics are not contradicted, for fear of exam punishment or based on false logic of ‘He’s a Dr/Prof/Prim Minister, he must be right’. This is especially worrying when you realise how mundane if not frighteningly ignorant the majority of resident Maltese academics are.
Students who go for independent thought are reigned in and punished. I hold myself up as an example, publicly humiliated and punished for doing things all European Universities encourage their students to do.
Little wonder that students grow up to be citizens with no imagination, no inquisitiveness and a complete lack of ability for rational and independent thought.
‘Is this heaven?” they asked Kevin Costner in “Field of Dreams” (c.1988).
‘No.’ he replied. Its Iowa.’
Your reply just brought that thought to mind…and how similarly blissful the Maltese seem.
Re-posting my comment as I think it’s relevant here:
Are these things bullet proof? What’s to stop a resourceful psycho (like the animal crucifier for example) firing shots at the storage tanks? Or even a disgruntled hunter, angry at not getting to hunt, using the tanks for target practice?
Is that a serious comment? You really think a pot shot at a sealed storage tank is going to pierce the lining and ignite a cryogenic liquid stored at -162C?
Jien naqbel mija fil-mija li il-pl ma jinteressahx min-nies. Attaparsi se jmutu bil-kancer meta se jissogra li joqtolhom huwa bi spluzzjoni. Imma dan ikun it-tort tal-maggoranza tan-nies tal-inhawi li jivvutaw kollha Labour.
Dear people of the south,
on behalf of myself and the the rest of the island, I would like to take this opportunity to thank you from the bottom of our hearts for accepting the risks associated with this project that the P.L has seen fit to place at your doorstep.
Not a word of doubt or complaint or even a thought for your children’s welfare. We honour you for your selfless commitment to the rest of the population so that we may benefit from reduced energy bills.
The words of Sir Winston have never rung so true:
‘Never has so much been owed by so many to so few’.
We will always remember you.
Rest in Pieces.
Good words for their future epitaph.
Perhaps a couple of videos might help to understand how this gas behaves.
This is what it does, when in liquid state, as copious amounts contact water at ambient temperature.
Notice how the fire test at the end resulted in flash flames, practically uncontrollable using water. Storage tanks on land are in fact designed with major pits around their base utilising polymeric foam to coalesce the liquid. But Konrad couldn’t get himself to admit he didn’t have the required space on land. Or maybe he never intended to.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-EY82cVKuA
The video below indicates what those clouds do, this one, smallish, from an overturned road tanker shown at the end of the video. One to realise this accident was on tarmac, no rapid phase transition illustrated in the previous video.
Somehow, Iron Maiden’s run to the hills comes to mind.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLGM_2l0zok
The last video is an explosion of a Liquified Petroleum gas or LPG truck and not LNG.
That is terribly devastating and it clearly shows the impact blast which in other words is a tremendous amount of pressure exerted and transfered on to the air and surroundings next to the explosion. This impact blast or shockwave goes beyond the dramatic fumes and fires seen in the video but can be equivalently disastrous. You just need to watch the thin cloud of white dust advancing quickly towards the viewers in the car. That is the blast. Somtimes it is felt as a tremor such as when a fireworks factory blasts off.
Now what would be the impact blast radius in the case of an LNG tanker or LNG facilities explosion in Marsaxlokk?
Some studies report that any kind of vessel should keep a distance of 8 to 10 km away from the tanker if moored further out at sea.
Could the authorites in question kindly just give us appropriate info on such an issue? We should be told immediately as this doesn’t only concern the Marsaxlokk area but the whole island whatsoever.
I cannot fathom what people thought this new PL goverment was going to bring about to this country. So far this goverment was up to no good and worse of all he doesn’t even care for our own health and safety. Bah, those 36,000 should cry out mea culpa. Bring back boring Gonzi’s arrogance. Life was easier complaning about those stupid 500 euros rather than an unwanted useless powerstation with all the risks it brings about.
Below is a better explanation for a shockwave.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HFsAbkkAV-Q
God forbid should we ever witness such an event.
@Valent.
The text under the video says LNG.
There is another video of the same event, also referring to it as LNG.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTQrVXEPQrM
There are one or two comments under this other video saying it was LPG, but there are also contradicting replies, confirming it was LNG. One reply by uploadJ to JESUS BELMONTE says:
“JESÚS BELMONTE, the cloud has the characteristics of a LNG and also the ignition did not occur until late into the release … all characteristics of LNG vs LPG. . Also, the explosion would have been much more severe with Propane, as the explosive mix is 5 to 15% for natural gas and only 2.2 to 10% for propane the thinner propane air/fuel mix is easier to ignite and wold ignite sooner as the vapor reached sources of ignition (like the vehicles). . Also, all major news outlets say methane. . ”
I find this reply most reasonable. To me, the thick fog which precedes the explosion is the LNG vapourising, and, because it takes heat from the surrounding air in order to do so, it suddenly lowers the temperature of that air, causing it to become liquid (water vapour).
I do not think that LPG would cause that vapour. I think it will simply explode into a thick smoke.
The Sunday Times published excerpts from Eddie Fenech Adami’s biography. It was revealed that Mintoff, after the 1981 election, wanted to, or rather was thinking about calling another early election.
There were objectors from the MLP such as Lorry Sant, Joe Grima and Wistin Abela (all 3 granted) and… Lino Spiteri. This certainly changes our perspective on him.
[Daphne – Oh, but he’s been mentioned in that context before. I can’t remember where or how, but it was public. The information is certainly not new.]
It does not change our perspective of Mintoff at all.
Mintoff was a dictator and never consulted with his cabinet. If he really meant that he wanted an election, he would have called an election, full stop.
How more stupid can my countrymen get? Here we are, with the full benefit of hindsight, and we’re still giving Mintoff the benefit of the doubt.
If he really wanted to call an election, he would have called it.
In any case, an election before the changes to the constitution, which took ages, would have produced exactly the same result. Win-win for Mintoff.
And the one doing the whitewashing here is Eddie Fenech Adami, if you please. I know old age mellows but still.
Maybe I was not clear. By him I meant Lino Spiteri, not Mintoff.
A lot has been said about the risks which the Floating Storage Unit with 130,000 cubic meters of LNG in the middle of Marsaxlokk poses to homes, the drop in their values, the consequence on bank loan security, the risks to the Freeport and to the power station itself. And it is all correct.
At this point I am left wondering which insurance company in its right senses is going to insure the LNG FSU itself, considering all those risks. I think it is one thing insuring an FSU moored 12 miles away from the shore (OK, it will have to be an FSRU, but that’s technical stuff) where the only losses could take place on the FSRU and can be worked out, but it’s another thing insuring an LNG FSU located in a busy harbour with thousands of residences and tourist developments around, a Freeport investment, and two brand new powerstations (BWSC and Siemens).
Really Ciccio.
Chinese of course.
We can all put our mind at rest then. The Chinese, they are so generous.
And the size of the premium? Of course with many deductibles.
I think that what is needed here to stop this crazy idea is popular activism.
In a European country, the residents of the area would group together to form one united force. They could be led by local councillors, or by other activists.
And what could drive such unity if not a financial motive?
One way to make the operator change the location of that FSU despite the cost involved is to impose on it an alternative cost. Making the operator suffer the costs which it will be imposing on the residents and other operators.
The residents, the commercial operators, and the Freeport, can make a claim for an annual contribution towards the insurance to their property, the loss in its value, and the insurance of their lives and other belongings. This sort of action is normal in European countries. It is based on the Polluter Pays Principle.
If the private cost imposed on the consortium is huge enough, it may make sense for the FSU to be moored outside the Marsaxlokk harbour.
It’s not just a question of moving the FSU out to sea as it would then need a regasifier. Hence an FSRU would be needed as it would not be feasible to transport LNG at -162C to shore.
Have a look at this article. It says “the contents of a single large LNG storage tank with a capacity of, say, 140,000 cubic meters of gas, will, if ruptured, produce tens of billions of cubic feet of flammable gas. According to studies, the resulting air-gas mixture plume could extend as far as 7.3 miles from the ruptured tank.”
That means that the air-gas mixture would cover half of Malta. Not only the people in the south should be extremely worried but we all should be.
http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2010-03-30/news/bal-op.lng30mar30_1_lng-storage-natural-gas-cubic-meters
Exactly.
The article continues “If breathed, this mixture would be deadly. If ignited, it would produce a monstrous fireball and could cause third-degree burns and ignite structures as far as 2 miles away. No existing firefighting technology can fight such a blaze.”
Compare to the misleading lngfacts.org article quoted in the comment by Valent.
Just the type of thing super-yacht owners like to hear.
Please keep signing this petition submitted to the European Parliament by MEP Roberta Metsola.
http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/Petition-on-Marsaxlokk-Gas-Storage-Unit
Another example of taking risks of this nature can be seen in the decision by Cyprus to store a container of confiscated expolsives in an open space close to the power station in Limassol thinking it was safe. ( details can be found at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasilikos_Power_Station)
The explosion that severely damaged the power station was heard up to 50 kilometres (31 mi) away and is believed to have involved at least 2,000 tonnes of munitions. With the exception of the gas turbine, all other generators were damaged and remained offline for more than one year.
So the proposed plan is that of a floating storage unit of 126 thousand cu.m of LNG so close to land near the Delimara power station in Marsaxlokk Bay. To give one an idea of the huge risk involved, consider the following.
The density of LNG is about 450 kg per cu.m so this amounts to a total mass of 56.7 million kg of LNG in the storage unit.
The energy value of LNG is around 47.5 MJ/kg; this means that when 1 kg of LNG is burnt, or explodes, 47.5 MJ of energy are released.
A simple multiplication gives us therefore a total energy stored of 2.7 billion or 2.7 thousand million MJ.
Now how much is 2.7 billion MJ? Well the uranium fission nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima released around 65 million MJ; this means that should 126 thousand cu.m of LNG ignite, the total energy released would be equivalent to over 40 Hiroshima type devices.
That would put Malta on the map (and off it) as hosting the largest fireworks festival of all time. Little Joey would be proud.
Stop worrying, guys. Eddy Privitera has today assured us (in the Letters to the Editor section of the Times of Malta) that ‘Gas ‘domes’ are low risk’.
Don’t take any notice of the PN strategists’ fear tactics. If he says so then it must be true.
I don’t think we should worry about any accidents coming from the storage tanks. I mean, look at Malta’s firework factories track record.
It is a huge mistake for ALL the Maltese people that think a gas explosion of this magnitude (God forbid) will not affect them seeing they don’t live in this vicinity.
One only has to think what would happen to the power station and the consequences that would follow. Imagine having no electricity, and not just as a temporary power cut.
When the Armstrong gun at Rinella was going to be fired for training purposes, the people of Cottonera used to be advised to leave windows open in view of the blast. Fondazzjoni Wirt Artna are able to confirm this.
The blast from this gun pales into insignificance when compared to the blast in case of an accidental explosion.