Edward Scicluna on Super One

Published: March 9, 2008 at 11:39am

Professor Scicluna has just been on Super One with Miss Miriam Dalli. He made it clear that, unlike in previous general elections, he is not taking part in a vote sampling exercise and his comments are based solely on theory. As with economic exercises, he started from the premise ‘all things being equal’, which in real life they never are.

So this is the gist of what Professor Scicluna just said:

  • The highest level of those who collected their documents and didn’t vote, and those who didn’t even bother collecting their documents, is in traditional PN strongholds. He reckons that the PN is the party that took a knock from this. (See my post further down – the parties were roughly equally affected – 52% of those no-shows were PN and 48% were MLP).
  • So, if all or almost all of those no-shows were PN, this is enough to almost wipe out the Nationalist Party’s electoral majority of 2003 – again, all things being equal and nothing having changed over the last five years, which just doesn’t happen.
  • All things being equal and the no-shows all being disgruntled Nationalists (my note – they’re not) this means that the PN and the MLP are starting the counting race with a 1000-vote advantage for the PN, or ‘rasimbras’.
  • The protest vote could have expressed itself purely in the no-shows, but the no-shows could also be an expression of a trend – with more protest votes expressing themselves against the party in government (my note – if we are to consider this as a trend, then the trend would be evenly split, and traditional Labourites will also be voting against Labour).
  • Both political parties will be able to predict the result from a sample of the first votes counted – 9000 are enough. With 25,000, they can predict the result accurately. But the parties are responsible and usually let more time go by before they announce the result.
  • This is just a numerical exercise, it is not scientific, and these are only assumptions.




19 Comments Comment

  1. Chris says:

    Well, one of the parties is responsible about predicting a result anyway…

  2. Chris says:

    As an aside, can you imagine what MLP will do if we ever reach a stage where we’re voting electronically?

    (And if PN are elected, I’d say there’s a good chance it will be that way in 5 years’ time)

  3. Kenneth says:

    Jason is in Naxxar !!

    No bruises !

  4. Kenneth says:

    Saw him on Super One just now

  5. claud says:

    saw gejsin on one tv right now.
    huge black eye under left eye. there is some foundation over it.

  6. A Jones says:

    You’re absolutely right! He’s thanking all the Labour supporters! For what exactly?!?!?

  7. Alba says:

    Spotted: Peacock on ONE TV!

  8. John Schembri says:

    Dalwaqt titla t-tombla . EYES DOWN! Five zero … fifty , four nine forty nine , fifty one…….five one ………………..FATTA ! (elett min?)

  9. Chris says:

    Jason Micallef just appeared on TVM too!

  10. claud says:

    i am in some doubt right now regarding the bruise, saw him again from the front and it does not show as much as the first time….maybe someone who’s up close to him can say better.

  11. D. Muscat says:

    I hope that the source of the 52% – 48% split of the no turn ups is correct. I always doubt what on earth are these reliable sources!!!

  12. Country in Limbo says:

    The wait is over. Let the counting start. In a few hours, we will know who will have he mandate to govern. Good luck Malta. I hope that whoever wins celebrates civically. The proof is in the eating.

    [Moderator – Too bad we’ve already tried those qassatat, and they weren’t too good.]

  13. Daphne Caruana Galizia says:

    D. Muscat – trust me, they’re the right sources. You can conclude that the Labour Party has the same figures.

    Jason’s ‘black eye’ – he’s had black eyes for the last two weeks of the campaign, the kind of black eyes you get from stress, worry and lack of sleep. But don’t we all feel that way….

  14. factsnotrumors says:

    I will repeat what you decided not to post previously :

    2003
    Registered Votes – 294,106
    % Voted – 96.95
    Votes Casted – 285,122

    2008
    Registered Votes – 315,307
    % Voted – 93
    Votes Casted – circa 292,000

    This shows an increase of votes cased of circa 7,000.

  15. bob says:

    I am informed that Jason really was involved in a heated argument but that no punch-up followed

  16. lino says:

    I think correct English goes “votes cast” and not “votes casted”. Of course one could speak about “castrated votes”…….the NO ones that went to AD or AN.

  17. laura v says:

    ????? + 4000 for PN on first count

  18. Amanda Mallia says:

    The tension is killing me

  19. Kenneth says:

    I hear you Amanda. I’ve just ran out of nails to bite.

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